Let me start with gold. People think that when an economic crisis hits, gold is sure to preserve its value and hedge against risk. That’s only half right. In the early stages of an economic crisis, it’s not just gold—high-quality stocks, such as SanDisk, and other highly liquid assets will all be sold off for cash. The market will reflect that money in the form of stabilization and a rapid rebound. So there will be a significant drop at first, followed by a surge as gold returns to its safe-haven role—in other words, first a drop, then a surge

Bitcoin and Ethereum work the same way. At first, they’ll be priced as risk assets alongside U.S. stocks. Crypto market movements usually lead those of other risk assets, and crypto bear and bull markets tend to arrive earlier than those of other risk assets. Right now, oil prices are high, institutional money is crowded into U.S. stocks, and there’s circular lending within the AI sector. The same thing happened during the 2008 financial crisis and the previous oil crisis: U.S. stocks experienced substantial pullbacks. So Bitcoin and Ethereum will definitely fall too. In the short term, U.S. stocks are in the early stages of a crisis. A crisis is about to unfold, so this bull market won’t last long, but it won’t be over either. Like gold, it will return to its safe-haven role in the medium term. After smart money flows out of U.S. stocks, it will look for new markets in which to grow its value—that means Bitcoin. The rebound after a bottom will be very strong, and in terms of timing and cycle, it should coincide with a mid-cycle rebound in U.S. stocks. So the early phase of this bull market will definitely feature a major bottom and a major rebound, moving in tandem with U.S. stocks. Ethereum could reach above 3,000 in this bull market; its recent low has been around 2,110 to 2,170,

Once it reaches 2,170, there will be plenty of intraday trading opportunities afterward

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DividendCatcher

12 minutes ago

So the key is to wait for the U.S. stock market pullback to run its course, then wait for BTC’s explosive rebound?

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UchihaUltraShort

an hour ago

Author

One more point: SanDisk's earnings report is out. If the market falls instead, don't look for a reason—just short. That means it's entering the mid-stage accelerated decline phase of an early bear market, a classic sign of a bursting bubble: earnings look good, but the price no longer rises at all

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RiskCoffee

an hour ago

The logic is pretty clear: first it follows the decline, then shifts to safe havens. I’ve noted the 2170 level

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UchihaUltraShort

2 hours ago

AuthorFirst Review

See just over 3,000 within the year,
Three lines of reasoning,
First, funds in the US stock market have not fully exited; it is still in a bubble phase, and bubbles can persist for a long time. At the very least, you could consider it once US stocks have fallen roughly 30%–40%. There is capital outflow
Second, look at the chart: the daily chart has been around 2,520 for quite a long time, with volume increasing but little change in price. This is a classic feature of a bubble
Third, retail buying in crypto is limited. Institutions and treasury companies like MicroStrategy naturally suppress volatility,

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