About $10.9 billion in Bitcoin options expire this Friday, with max pain at $78,000.

According to Deribit data, about 135,000 BTC options will expire on October 30, with a notional value of $10.92 billion and a put/call ratio of 0.53 (more calls than puts). A large number of calls are concentrated at $90,000 and above $95,000.

My take: Max pain isn’t a hard rule, but prices tend to gravitate toward it ahead of large expiries, and short-term volatility may increase. The direction will ultimately be determined by macro conditions and liquidity, not just the options expiry. If high-strike calls can’t be monetized quickly, some hedging positions may be unwound after expiry. Watch whether the price can hold around $80,000.

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