#美股财报季
US Tech Giants: Historical Forecasts and Scenarios

As of October 28, 2026, the primary focus is not merely on whether companies will exceed expectations, but on the strength of the growth signals they provide for the coming quarter. Specifically, the conversion of artificial intelligence (AI) investments into revenue, cloud growth, and profit margins will be the key drivers of their valuations.

According to the current calendar, Microsoft and Alphabet are scheduled to report today; Amazon and Coinbase on October 29; Apple on November 2; and AMD on November 3. Please note that these dates are subject to change and should not be treated as definitive official announcements.

1. Market Expectations and Key Metrics to Watch

Analyst forecasts ahead of earnings reports · USD · (Not actual results)

Company | Expected Earnings Per Share (EPS) | Expected Revenue | Critical Metric
Microsoft | $4.71 | $90.62 billion | Azure growth and AI investments
Alphabet | $3.03 | $127.91 billion | Google Cloud and advertising revenue
Amazon | $1.97 | $202.22 billion | AWS performance and operating profit
Apple | $1.99 | $113.44 billion | iPhone sales and profit margins
AMD | — | — | Data center chips and AI demand
Coinbase | -$0.23 | $1.21 billion | Crypto trading volume and transaction revenue

2. Bullish and Bearish Scenarios

Microsoft (MSFT)

Azure exceeds forecasts, AI-driven revenue accelerates, and capital expenditures remain well-controlled—all of which would support the stock.

Bearish Scenario

A slowdown in Azure growth or high capital expenditures putting pressure on profitability could trigger a sell-off. Alphabet — GOOGL

Google Cloud and digital advertising show strong growth; investments in Gemini boost revenue expansion.

Bearish scenario

Advertising strength or cloud profitability falls short of expectations, while AI infrastructure costs rise.

Amazon — AMZN

AWS growth accelerates; advertising revenue and retail margins improve.

Bearish scenario

Cloud growth misses expectations, or investments in logistics and AI put pressure on profitability.

Apple — AAPL

Strong revenue driven by iPhone demand, services income, and robust forward-looking sales projections.

Bearish scenario

Weak demand for devices, pressure in the Chinese market, or lower-than-expected sales forecasts lead to a decline.

AMD — AMD

Sales of data center products and AI accelerators exceed expectations; strong guidance is provided for the coming quarter.

Bearish scenario

AI chip demand, supply capacity, or gross profit margins fall short of projections.

Coinbase — COIN

Growth in crypto trading volume, transaction-based revenue, and stablecoin activity.

Bearish scenario

Trading volumes decline, a drop in crypto prices reduces revenue, or losses exceed expectations.

3. Which one offers the greatest potential for a positive surprise?

This is not a definitive ranking; these are scenario assessments indicating which factors could most significantly impact the stock’s performance. Company | Most Critical Risk
Microsoft | Acceleration of Azure and AI revenue | Capital expenditures
Alphabet | Google Cloud efficiency | AI costs and advertising competition
Amazon | AWS and operating profit | High capital expenditures
Apple | iPhone sales and optimization | Potential weakness in demand
AMD | AI chip sales and future cycle | Competition and margins
Coinbase | Crypto market and trading volume | Price volatility and revenue decline

4. If the earnings report is strong, will the stock price definitely rise?

No. Three different outcomes are possible:

* Earnings exceed expectations + strong forward-looking guidance: The likelihood of a rise increases.
* Earnings exceed expectations, but forward-looking guidance is weak: The stock may fall.
* Results are in line with expectations: The direction of the price is determined by valuation, current market pricing, and investor positioning.

Specifically, it is worth monitoring the broader outlook for the crypto market (for Coinbase), expectations for AI chips (for AMD), and Azure growth (for Microsoft).

My approach: Rather than focusing solely on EPS (earnings per share) when forecasting earnings, I evaluate revenue, operating profit, forward-looking guidance for the next quarter, and what the market has already priced in. These factors do not guarantee specific returns or price levels.

For the next update, we could prepare probability scenarios—such as bullish, neutral, or bearish—for these six companies; however, providing exact percentages without verifying current price data and options market data would not be accurate.
$MSFT

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$AMZN

‌$AAPL

‌$COIN

‌$AMD