#每周来晒 #美联储利率决议倒计时
In my view, the Fed’s decision could trigger a breakout in Bitcoin (BTC); however, the more critical factor is not necessarily whether interest rates are cut or held steady, but rather the outlook for future monetary policy.

If the market already anticipates that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on October 29, the decision itself may elicit only a limited reaction. A more significant move could stem from surprises in Jerome Powell’s remarks, a shift in expectations regarding future rate cuts, or changes in bond yields and the U.S. dollar.

Which factor is the most important?

1. The future path of interest rates — the most significant factor

This is my primary focus.

BTC generally benefits when markets anticipate lower real yields, easier financial conditions, and increased liquidity. If the Fed signals that further rate cuts are on the table, cryptocurrencies could gain support. Conversely, if the Fed pushes back expectations for future cuts, BTC could come under pressure.

2. Powell’s press conference and forward guidance

Markets react to the gap between investor expectations and what Powell actually communicates. Even if a policy decision appears unchanged, his commentary could still shift expectations for upcoming meetings, potentially driving the market higher or lower.

3. BTC’s price action and positioning

Even a dovish Fed might not lead to a sustained rally if investors have already priced in the good news, if leveraged positions have become overcrowded, or if spot demand is weak. BTC’s reaction following the announcement will help reveal whether buyers have sufficient conviction to break out of the current range. Three possible scenarios for BTC

Scenario 1: Dovish hold — upside potential

Interest rates remain unchanged, but the Fed signals that inflation is easing or that future rate cuts are possible. If Treasury yields and the dollar weaken, BTC could break above its current trading range. A sustained breakout, however, would still require strong buying demand.

Scenario 2: Expected hold, neutral guidance — sideways movement

The Fed delivers what the market anticipates without significantly altering the outlook. BTC may fluctuate in either direction initially, but the trading range remains intact. Investors then shift their focus toward U.S. inflation and growth data.

Scenario 3: Hawkish hold — downside risk

The Fed emphasizes persistent inflation and leaves the door open for another interest rate hike. Higher yields and a stronger dollar could exert pressure on BTC, potentially triggering liquidations if there is an overcrowding of leveraged long positions.

What recent market signals indicate

As of October 28, markets generally expect interest rates to remain unchanged, with Bitcoin trading around $80,000. The dollar has strengthened and Treasury yields have risen, reflecting concerns regarding inflation and the future path of interest rates. This makes a "hawkish surprise" a significant risk. An important timing detail: The Fed’s decision and press conference come first, followed by the release of U.S. Q3 GDP and September PCE inflation data on October 29. These announcements could either reinforce or reverse the market's initial reaction.

Furthermore, current reports suggest that Kevin Warsh, rather than Jerome Powell, will be the Fed Chair for this meeting. Consequently, how Warsh communicates the policy outlook becomes a key question.

Based on my trading strategy, here is what I would look for:

I would monitor the following three signals in sequence:

* Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar: Will they rise or fall following the announcement?

* Confirmation of a BTC breakout: Will Bitcoin close beyond its established range—backed by strong spot volume—rather than just briefly piercing a level before reversing?

* Leverage and liquidations: Is the movement supported by spot buying, or is it primarily driven by a short squeeze or the liquidation of long positions?

Conclusion: The Fed could serve as the catalyst to break the current sideways trend, though I would not take that for granted. The decisive signal will be whether the policy guidance alters financial conditions enough to trigger sustained buying or selling in BTC. A simple decision to keep interest rates unchanged is not a reliable indicator of future direction.

$BTC