Continue monitoring macro liquidity#宏观关键周

▌Market
During last night's U.S. trading session, BTC quickly rebounded from a low of $79,400, reclaiming the $80,000 level along the way. CME futures closed at $81,440. The 24-hour range was nearly $2,000, a typical pre-rate-decision short-covering rally. ETH gained more strongly (+2.1%), rebounding from $2,330 to around $2,380 after being oversold earlier.

▌U.S. Stocks Overnight
All three major indexes closed higher: S&P 500 7,723 (+0.60%), Nasdaq 26,478 (+1.18%), Dow 52,378 (+0.03%). The Nasdaq led gains, with AI stocks rebounding across the board and fully recouping last Thursday's losses. This directly drove BTC's rebound last night—the recovery in risk appetite finally filtered through to the crypto market.

▌Key Focus Today
The FOMC decision will be announced tomorrow morning at 2:00 (Beijing time, 10/29), less than 18 hours from now. CME FedWatch continues to show a 91% probability of rates staying at 3.75%-4.00% and a 9% probability of a 25bp rate hike. As for ETF flows, IBIT was the only one to see inflows, at $110 million, while the other 11 saw zero inflows. This indicates that large investors are still on the sidelines, with only Grayscale passively attracting funds.

▌Short-Term View
The $79,000 support held, and BTC rebounded to around $81,500. But this is pre-rate-decision short covering, not a trend reversal. Resistance is at $82,000-$83,000, with support at $80,000. Volatility should gradually narrow ahead of the decision, so chasing the rally is not recommended. Wait for Powell's comments before judging direction—if he is more hawkish than expected, gains could be given back; if he is dovish, BTC may break above $83,000.

Risk reminder: The above is market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.