#KOSPIRalliesOver4% $SKHY $SAMSUNG #ShareWeekly

‍#WCTCS9
KOSPI hit +4.55% this morning and closed +3.09%. The shape of the day is more informative than the headline. Here’s my read on whether it was an oversold bounce or the start of something more.

1. The shape of the day (my math)
The index opened 3.46% higher at 5,658.65, touched about 5,717 and triggered a buy sidecar at 10:13 am, the 53rd of the year. It then faded to close at 5,638.34. That’s about 68% of the peak gain kept, and a close 0.4% below the open (my math). A sidecar tells you the move was fast, and the close tells you how much of it buyers were willing to hold.

2. Who bought and who sold
Foreigners net bought about 593B won and institutions about 280B won. Retail net sold about 948B won, roughly 1.6x the foreign buying (my math). Foreign buying is almost double what it was on October 21, when it was around 315–320B won (my math). That’s the encouraging part. But retail selling into the strength is what capped the afternoon.

3. A lower high (my math)
The October 21 intraday high was 5,790.58, and today’s high of about 5,717 is 1.3% below that. The index is also still about 6.2% below the roughly 6,009 close before the mid-October drop. So this looks like a bounce inside a range, not a breakout.

4. What drove it
A US AI lab’s IPO filing eased fears about AI spending, and Korea’s Q3 GDP grew a surprising 1.0% quarter on quarter. Chip stocks led: Samsung closed +4.23% at 222,000 won and SK hynix +5.18% at 1,341,000 won. Payout hopes ahead of earnings also helped. SK hynix reports on October 28 and Samsung on October 29, so the market is partly pricing hope.

5. Chart check (levels from my screenshots)

Samsung at 220,500: support at 189,237 (-14.2%), 14-day at 227,035 (+3.0%), 21-day at 242,095 (+9.8%), 35-day at 249,242 (+13.0%), resistance at 291,012 (+32.0%). RSI is 40.0.
SK hynix receipts at 142.52: support at 118.74 (-16.7%), 14-day at 150.20 (+5.4%), 21-day at 162.87 (+14.3%), 35-day at 172.18 (+20.8%), resistance at 205.10 (+43.9%). RSI is 39.1.

Both are still below all three averages, and Samsung’s chart price is almost unchanged from the 220,000 I saw on October 21 (my math, about +0.2%). Six days and two 4% index days later, the stock hasn’t gone anywhere. That’s what a range looks like.

6. If-then map

Samsung closes above the 14-day (227,035) after earnings: the first sign of a trend change.
Index retakes 5,790: the lower-high pattern breaks, and 6,009 becomes the next test.
Foreign buying fades while retail keeps selling: the bounce rolls over, and Samsung’s 189,237 support comes into view.

My take: I’d call this an oversold bounce that’s still being tested. The better foreign flows are a real improvement, but the fade, the lower high and two earnings reports in 48 hours mean I’d rather wait for the numbers than chase the sidecar.

Not financial advice.

Do you read the fade as normal profit-taking or as a ceiling? And what matters more to you this week: SK hynix’s results or the Fed?