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The Fed’s decision tomorrow is about 90% priced. What isn’t priced is the sentence that decides December. Here’s how I’d map it, ranking the card’s four markets by how directly they hear that sentence.

1. What’s priced and what isn’t
Futures put a hold on October 28 at about 89–90%. A December hike is priced at roughly 73–82% depending on the day and source. One survey reportedly has all 100 economists expecting a December hike, which I’d treat as a headline, not a fact. So the hold is the base case, and the message about December is the actual event.

2. The yield math (my math)
The 2-year yield is about 4.70%, against a 3.875% midpoint for the current 3.75%–4.00% range, so it already sits about 0.83 points above policy. That tells me the bond market is pricing more than one more hike. The 10-year is about 4.99%, only 0.29 points above the 2-year. The dollar index is near 102, about 0.9% below its 52-week high of 102.95 (my math).

3. The first 30 minutes
The statement lands at 18:00 UTC and the press conference starts at 18:30 UTC. One preview notes that the first move after the statement has sometimes reversed during the press conference. I’d use the 2-year yield, not any single candle, as the tell.

4. Three outcomes

Hawkish hold (December odds toward 90%+): 2-year yield above its recent 4.77% high, the dollar toward its high, gold under pressure, BTC and tech weaker.
Neutral hold (odds stay near 80%): little repricing, so earnings after the close take over.
Dovish hold (odds slide): yields and the dollar ease, gold rebounds, BTC and tech get relief.

5. Levels (from my screenshots)

Gold at 3,991: support at 3,965 (-0.7%), 14-day at 4,086 (+2.4%), 21-day at 4,108 (+2.9%), 35-day at 4,177 (+4.7%), resistance at 4,243 (+6.3%). RSI is 34.4. One preview’s dovish target of 4,100–4,200 lines up with those averages.
BTC at 79,764: support at 79,598 (-0.2%), 50-day at 81,825 (+2.6%), 84,120 resistance (+5.5%), 77,020 below (-3.4%). RSI is 40.4.
MSFT at 529.22: support at 512.65 (-3.1%), resistance at 544.33 (+2.9%), RSI 55.5. It reports after the close, so equities face two events on Wednesday.
Dollar: no chart in my set, so I’m using the reported 102.43 as the level to watch (+0.4%).

6. Plan template
If the 2-year yield rises after the press conference and BTC closes below 79,598, I’d expect a test of 77,020, and gold would be testing 3,965. If yields fall and BTC reclaims 81,825, 84,120 comes into view and gold has room to the 4,100 area. If nothing moves, I’d let Microsoft set Thursday’s tone.

My take: by directness, I rank the reaction order as 2-year yield, then the dollar, then gold, then BTC and stocks, since rates are the first-order variable and the others follow. But “first” matters less than “what holds after 18:30 UTC.” I’m keeping size small until the dust settles.

Not financial advice.

Which signal would you trust most tomorrow: the 2-year yield, the dollar or gold? And do you expect a hawkish or dovish hold?