Good morning. You might be watching two big events today. The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision at 2 PM Eastern Time. Microsoft reports earnings after the market closes. Oppssss that is a lot of information for one afternoon.

Markets already expect the Fed to hold rates steady. CME FedWatch data shows a 90 percent probability of no change. So the real signal is guidance for December. Analysts are watching whether officials keep a future increase on the table. If the language sounds firmer, borrowing costs for mortgages and business loans may stay elevated for longer.

Microsoft faces higher expectations. FactSet consensus points to adjusted earnings of 4.71 dollars per share on revenue of 90.63 billion dollars. Ha ha ha ha the headline number is only part of the story. Investors want to see Azure growth and whether heavy spending on artificial intelligence is turning into real cash flow. OMG if Azure slows or spending rises faster than revenue, technology shares may react.

CBOE data shows options markets pricing a one day move of about 1.3 percent for the Fed meeting. That suggests rate decisions still move the whole market. However, Microsoft affects the technology and AI narrative that has driven stocks all year. Both matter, but they move different parts of the market.

Which signal will you watch more closely today, the Fed statement or the Microsoft call. This is not financial advice.

#FedDecision #MicrosoftEarning
#USEarningsSeason #ShareWeekly