#BTCBattlesFor80000 $BTC #ShareWeekly

‍#USAIAndCryptoStocksRise
My read: the weekend break below $80K was thin-liquidity noise until buyers prove otherwise, and this week supplies the proof or the failure. Here’s how I’m framing it.

1. What the weekend actually did
BTC dipped to about $79,150 on Saturday, its first move under $80K since Oct 15 and its lowest since Sept 18, then recovered to roughly $80,000 to $80,400. One report puts long liquidations around $800M or more on the break. Weekend books are thin, so the move looks bigger than the conviction behind it.

2. Who is underwater up here
BTC has held roughly $80K to $87K for a month. The latest disclosed Strive purchase, 3,311 BTC between Oct 5 and 9, averaged about $84,500, so my math puts that buyer about 5% under water. US spot ETFs also saw about $636M of net outflows on Oct 22. Strive’s whole week of buying (about $280M) was under half of that single day (my math). Its CEO has signaled more buying, but I haven’t seen a new filing. My interpretation: every late buyer between 82K and 87K becomes a seller near breakeven, so rallies into 82K to 84K will meet supply.

3. What my chart says
BTC 79,994 sits just 0.14% above my lower line at 79,880. The 50-day MA at 81,808 is 2.3% overhead and my upper line at 84,178 is 5.2% away. Below, my lines at 77,020 (-3.7%) and 75,500 (-5.6%) sit next to the 100-day MA at 75,720 (-5.3%), and the 200-day is at 72,994 (-8.8%). RSI is 41. MACD has slid from just under zero on Oct 23 to deeply negative now, with the histogram at about -372 versus about -219 three days ago. Momentum is worsening, not stabilizing.

4. Positioning isn’t washed out
The fear and greed index sits at a neutral 50, and funding is described as neutral. One prediction market prices a possible October low near $78K. None of that says capitulation, so a flush toward 77K to 78K wouldn’t surprise me.

5. Three clocks this week
Wednesday: the Fed decision, with a hold expected and a lean toward a December hike. Thursday: GDP and PCE. Friday: roughly $11B of options expiry. The Nov 3 midterms add event risk, and I treat that purely as a volatility date.

My take: $80K is acting as a magnet right now, not support. I’d want a daily close above the 50-day near 81.8K before calling a reclaim. My line is 79,880. A daily close below it points me to 77,020, then a confluence zone at 75,500 to 75,720. If it holds, the base case is more range trading toward 84K, not a breakout.

Not financial advice.

What’s your key signal this week: a daily close above 81.8K, or ETF flows turning positive? And is $80K your line, or are you waiting for 77K?
@Gate_Square