#USEarningsSeason $AAPL $TSLA $META $IBM

The grading rubric changed this month. Q3 profits for the S&P 500 are on track to grow more than 32% (one data provider’s estimate), yet the index fell for the week and the AI-heavy names took the hit. My view: this week’s reports won’t be judged on beats, but on three things: funding, conversion and margin.

1. Why beats stopped working
The S&P 500 excluding AI names has caught up with the full index this year (about 12.4% versus roughly 12%), mostly during October. Oil at a four-year high, plus a Fed expected to hold on Oct 28 but leaning toward a December hike, keeps the discount rate in play. High-capex names are being priced as financing stories first.

2. Microsoft and Alphabet (Oct 28, after the Fed)
Microsoft guided Azure to about 45% growth (43% last quarter) with capex above $50B this quarter. Its headline capex is muddied by a lease-accounting change, so a lower reported number proves nothing. Alphabet is the cash-flow test. Last quarter, $44.9B of capex pushed free cash flow to -$5.9B, its first negative reading, while Cloud grew 82%. One report has 2026 capex as high as $205B. The question for both: does growth keep accelerating without another capex step-up?

3. Amazon (Oct 29): the cleanest growth-versus-funding trade
AWS grew about 37% last quarter, its fastest in 18 quarters, at a 39% margin. Against that sits a $220B capex plan and trailing free cash flow of about -$7.6B (one report). Options imply roughly a 6% move. If AWS holds in the mid-30s and operating income lands near the top of the $22.5B to $26.5B guide, I think the market can tolerate the capex. If growth cools, it won’t.

4. Apple (Nov 2): the counter-case
Apple spends far less on data centers and guided revenue up 9% to 11% with a 47% to 48% gross margin, pressured by memory costs. On my charts, AAPL sits 0.5% under its upper line with RSI near 64, and IBM, which sells AI through software, is near its upper line with RSI above 71. My interpretation: the market currently prefers monetization without the build-out bill.

5. My chart map (levels from today’s charts)

META 642.26: 0.3% above support at 640.33, about 10% to 12% under its moving averages, RSI near 36.
NVDA 211.0: 1.2% above 208.5, RSI near 38.
TSLA 372.22: 4.9% below 390.28, 6.1% above 349.49.
AAPL 347.72: 0.5% under 349.54.

My take: I’d treat the capex-heavy reports as two-sided and size accordingly. If META 640.33 and NVDA 208.5 hold into Oct 29, that tells me the selloff was a funding scare, not a verdict. A daily close under either shifts me defensive on AI infrastructure.

Not financial advice.

Which report are you watching most: Microsoft’s Azure number, Alphabet’s cash flow, or Amazon’s AWS? And do you think beats still matter?