#Gate广场万圣节 #BitcoinFallsBelow80K

Bitcoin is back under $80,000, trading near $79,673 after its weakest level since September 18. Round numbers attract headlines, so I looked at the structure underneath it. The chart reads like a small building: a floor that has been tested, a ceiling that keeps rejecting price, and a trapdoor a few percent below.

$80,000 and the cost-basis band

Bitcoin had closed above $80,000 every day since September 18, so the break carries more weight than a round number. The level is also where several groups bought. Glassnode estimates the average price paid by companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets at about $80,000, which puts the average corporate treasury position at a loss below it. Glassnode also described a cost-basis band between $80,000 and $81,500. By my math, $79,673 sits about 0.4% below $80,000 and about 2.2% below the top of that band.

The floor has been tested before. The same $79,800 to $80,000 zone stopped the decline on October 15, which makes Saturday the second test in ten days. Today is arguably a third look at the same area, and each test tends to weaken a floor.

The ceiling: $82,000 to $83,350

Overhead, several levels stack up. Bitcoin was rejected near $85,000 on October 21 and has dropped back under its 200-period exponential moving average on the 4-hour chart, now at $82,024. The 50-day average sits at $81,798 and the 20-day at $82,539, which means many recent buyers are underwater and short-term sellers have the advantage. Traders also pointed to resistance between $82,400 and $83,350. From $79,673, $82,024 is about 2.9% higher and $82,539 about 3.6% higher.

The structure is a descending staircase. Bitcoin has made lower highs since its $87,197 peak on October 2, with the $84,840 rejection extending that sequence, and it closed below its 50-day average for the first time since August. By my math, price is about 8.6% below the October 2 peak. Add the lows: $79,842 on October 15, then $79,146 on October 24, a lower low. Lower highs plus lower lows is the textbook definition of a downtrend.

The trapdoor: $77,500 to $78,400

If $80,000 gives way, the chart offers a few catch points. Glassnode's True Market Mean places the next major support at $77,600, roughly 3% below, and BeInCrypto flagged $77,876 as the next downside level, with a support zone between about $76,700 and $72,500 below that. Another reading puts support near $78,422. By my math, $78,400 is 1.6% below, $77,600 is 2.6% below and $75,000 is 5.9% below. Mid-September's consolidation near $78,000 before the run to $87,000 adds weight to that area.

Momentum

The 4-hour RSI sits at 33.21, showing that sellers have controlled most candles since Wednesday without yet reaching the near-30 readings that preceded the October 9 rebound to $84,000. A daily RSI near 43 points to weak but not extreme momentum. In plain words, the drop has room to run before it looks stretched.

Why it fell when yields did not

This is the useful puzzle. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.96% on October 22 from 5.31% earlier in the month, and lower yields usually support Bitcoin. So rates are not the main driver this time. The drivers were flows, leverage and geopolitics. Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost about $773 million on Thursday and Friday after taking in more than $1 billion earlier in the week, more than $200 million of positions were liquidated in a single hour on Saturday, with $191.33 million of them longs, and more than $810 million was liquidated across 24 hours, including about $689 million in longs. Oil adds another layer, with Brent near $115 after a 6% weekly gain.

Distance from the highs

Bitcoin is about 36.8% below its all-time high of $126,080 by my arithmetic, which keeps the long-term picture a recovery story and not a new-high story.

The Fed meets October 27 and 28, and U.S. midterm elections follow on November 3. The decision is widely expected to be a hold, so tone matters more than the rate.

Risk and reward

A long from $79,673 with a stop under $78,400 risks about 1.6%. A target at $82,024 offers about 2.9%, a ratio near 1.8 to 1, while $84,840 offers about 6.5%, a ratio near 4 to 1. The second ratio only pays if the floor holds on a closing basis and the ceiling breaks.

Three scenarios

Floor holds: BTC closes back above $80,200 and $81,500, then challenges $82,024 to $82,539.
Range: price chops between $78,400 and $81,500 while the Fed and earnings dominate.
Trapdoor: a daily close below $79,000 opens $78,400, then $77,600 to $77,876, and a break there points toward $75,000.

ETF flows each morning, liquidation spikes near round numbers, the 4-hour 200 EMA near $82,024 and whether corporate-treasury selling appears. A reclaim of the 50-day average would be the first real sign of repair.

I would keep leverage low into the Fed decision, treat a daily close under $79,000 as the line that opens the trapdoor, and wait for a close above $82,539 before calling the downtrend over.
A floor that has been tested three times is not a wall, it is a negotiation. Sooner or later the buyers or the sellers stop showing up, and the useful habit is to decide in advance which one you will believe. #WCTCS9