#KOSPIFallsNearly4% $SKHY $SOXL $SAMSUNG #ShareWeekly

The “nearly 4%” headline is already stale, and the real story is what happened next. KOSPI fell 3.5% on Thursday, plunged more than 4% intraday on Friday, then closed up 0.3%. My view: the chip rally is cooling in momentum, not breaking on fundamentals, but Friday’s bounce rested on one stock’s news, so I’m not trusting it yet.

1. Two sessions, two tapes
Thursday: KOSPI closed at 5,533.77 (-3.52%), Samsung fell 4.03% to 214,500 won and SK Hynix fell 5.49% to about 1.22M won. Friday: the index dropped more than 4% early and finished at 5,550.30 (+0.3%). SK Hynix closed up 4.4% at 1,277,000 won, while Samsung edged up 0.5%.

2. Why Thursday hit so hard
Three things stacked. The US AI-funding scare (the US semiconductor index lost about 6.7%). Profit-taking after Wednesday’s roughly 3.3% bounce. And buyback support ran out: SK Hynix’s 40 trillion won repurchase finished Wednesday, and Samsung’s buyback wrapped earlier this month. One local analyst pointed to that missing bid. Oil above $110 didn’t help.

3. Why I don’t trust Friday’s reversal
SK Hynix rallied after dropping its review of a US listing for its Solidigm unit, which eased dilution worries. That is a company-specific catalyst, not a sector all-clear. Foreigners were net sellers of about 1 trillion won, institutions bought roughly 800 to 870 billion, and decliners beat gainers 719 to 173. The smaller tech board still fell 1.6%. Domestic money caught the knife, and global money didn’t.

4. Good numbers, muted price
Samsung’s preliminary Q3 operating profit was a record (around 107 trillion won per one report), yet the stock reportedly fell 2.4% the day it printed. One research house expects DRAM contract price growth to slow to 10% to 15% in Q4 from about 60% in Q2. My interpretation: the market is pricing the second derivative, how fast growth decelerates, not the level.

5. My charts (levels from my screenshots)
SKHY 131.45: RSI 30.0, MACD below its signal with a negative histogram. My lower line at 123.92 is 5.7% below, and the shortest MA at 157.20 is 19.6% above. SOXL’s RSI is 31.6. Oversold readings aren’t buy signals, because oversold can stay oversold.

6. What I’m watching
SK Hynix reports Oct 28 at 9:00 Seoul time (05:00 PKT). HBM pricing commentary and capital return plans are the swing items, along with whether foreign flows turn from net selling.

My take: I read this as a cooldown in the crowded part of the chip trade, not the end of the memory cycle. Until foreign flows turn and the index holds above Friday’s low, I’m not calling a bottom. SKHY at 123.92 is my line. A daily close below it turns me defensive, and a reclaim of ~157 would change my mind.

Not financial advice.

Do you read Friday as a bottom signal or just a bounce? And what matters more for memory: the price level or the pace of growth?
@Gate_Square