#USTechStocksSellOff $NVDA $META $AMD #ShareWeekly

Heavy day for tech, but I’m not reading it as “the AI trade is over.” My view: this is a de-risking of the most crowded corner, AI chips and big AI spenders, driven by funding and supply worries, not by valuation alone. The semiconductor index lost about 6.7% and the tech-heavy index 2.6%, while the Dow finished flat.

1. Read the breadth before the headline
The Dow closed roughly unchanged and the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, its worst day since July. That gap says the damage was concentrated in AI-linked names. NVDA fell about 4.4%, AMD about 8%, Marvell about 8.7% and Meta about 7%. One report says roughly $200B of chip market value vanished in the session, right after the group had ended a long losing streak.

2. Two triggers, one theme: who pays, and who can build
Meta posted its first cash outflow in over a decade and announced a new non-voting share class to help fund AI. Then a major chip-equipment maker warned that component and cleanroom constraints could limit output into 2027. It guided next quarter to $8.6B and said that would have been higher without those limits, despite a record quarter, and the stock dropped almost 12%. The market sold the caveat, not the record.

3. Is valuation the problem?
Less than people think, in my view. One fund note puts the S&P 500 forward multiple near 19x at the end of September, down from about 22x in February, because earnings grew into prices. My interpretation: the risk isn’t an expensive index so much as a crowded group with big spending commitments, which turns fragile when financing or supply surprises show up.

4. The leverage lesson
The semiconductor index fell about 6.7%, and a 3x leveraged semiconductor product (SOXL) fell about 20%. That’s roughly what 3x implies (my math). On my SOXL/USDT chart, price is 85.95, RSI near 31.6, and my lower line at 65.15 is about 24% below. Leverage doesn’t give you a second chance.

5. Where my charts sit (levels from my daily charts)

META 645: 0.3% above my support at 643.44, under all three moving averages, RSI near 39.
NVDA 212: 1.35% above 209.46, with the MAs about 5% to 6% overhead, RSI near 38.5.
AVGO 322: 1.1% above 318.89, RSI near 34.
AMD 515: 5.4% above 487.16, RSI near 40.
Three of the four sit within about 1.4% of support. That’s a cluster test. If one breaks I’d expect the others to follow, and if they hold, RSI in the 30s gives room for a bounce.

6. What I’m watching
The Fed meets Oct 27 to 28. Microsoft and Alphabet report Oct 28, Amazon on Oct 29, and Nvidia around mid-November (date unconfirmed). Capex and funding commentary will matter more than the beats.

My take: One red day isn’t a trend, but this is another leg down for AI chips after a long losing streak earlier this month. I’m treating it as a cooldown of the crowded trade, not the end of AI spending. I won’t call a bottom until NVDA 209.46 and META 643.44 hold on a daily close. A close below either shifts me defensive on the group.

Not financial advice.

Do you see this as a healthy reset or the start of something bigger? And which breaks first: NVDA at 209 or AVGO at 319?
@Gate_Square