On Wednesday, SpaceX briefly passed TSMC in market value. On Thursday, it gave most of that back. The two sessions make a neat before-and-after, so I laid them out as a ledger and added the numbers that explain the reversal.

Day one: the overtake

At one reading on Wednesday, SpaceX traded at $163.39 with a market cap of $2.22 trillion, against TSMC's $2.21 trillion. The catalyst was earnings. Quarterly revenue jumped 161% and beat estimates. The stock closed that session at $159.31, up 7.79%.

Day two: the reversal

SpaceX fell $14.56 to close at $144.75 on Thursday, a drop of 9.14%. After hours, it was quoted at $147.32, up 1.78%. By my arithmetic, the close was about 10% above the pre-earnings level of $147.79 only on the way up, and now sits just below it. The earnings gain is gone.

The gap in dollars

Using the share count implied by Wednesday's $2.22 trillion reading at $163.39, I estimate SpaceX's market value at about $1.97 trillion at $144.75. TSMC's ADR fell about 4.5% on Thursday, which would put its value near $2.11 trillion if it started around $2.21 trillion. By my estimate, SpaceX now trails TSMC by roughly $140 billion, or about 7%, after leading by about $10 billion at the peak. Both fell, but SpaceX fell twice as much. These are derived figures, since providers use different share counts.

Why the reversal happened

Force one: a share unlock. About 911.5 million insider shares became available for sale. At $144.75, that is roughly $132 billion of stock, about 6.7% of the shares outstanding by my calculation. Supply of that size can weigh on a stock even when the quarter is strong.

Force two: heavy spending. Third-quarter capex soared to $19.6 billion from $6.9 billion a year earlier. The company guided fourth-quarter capex to $35 billion to $40 billion and ended the quarter with $36.1 billion in debt. The quarter's cash story and the debt balance are what investors kept returning to.

Force three: merger uncertainty. Musk said SpaceX and Tesla each formed special committees of independent directors to study a tie-up, and that he is recused as a conflicted party. Investors cited uncertainty over structure, governance, dilution risk and shareholder approval.

Force four: trading mechanics. Volume reached 193.8 million shares, about 96% above the three-month average of 99.1 million. By my math, that is roughly $28 billion of stock changing hands. The recent introduction of 2x leveraged and inverse single-stock ETFs on SPCX can magnify intraday swings.

Force five: the tech tape. The stock fell with its peers. Meta fell about 7% and Tesla about 3% the same day, and headlines about new strikes in the US and Israeli war with Iran pressured risk assets. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.72%, so AI-linked names sold off together.

What did not change

The business results are still strong. SpaceX's Super Intelligence unit turned profitable, with sales up 830% and $431 million of quarterly profit. Management also pointed to a long-range target of reaching 10 gigawatts of compute and more than $200 billion of revenue by 2027, according to market commentary, and Musk framed an annual recurring revenue run rate that could reach $1 trillion by the end of 2027. These are targets, not results, which is why the stock is sensitive to any hint of delay.

Where the stock sits

SpaceX has fallen about 10% since going public, measured against its first-day close of $161. Against a 52-week high near $225.64, today's close is about 36% lower by my math.

Levels at $144.75

Resistance: $147.79 (the pre-earnings close), then $150 to $152, then $159.31 (Wednesday's close). By my calculation, $147.79 is about 2.1% above and $159.31 about 10.1% above.
Support: $140 to $143, about 3% to 3.3% below, then the August low area near $105, which is far below.

What the ranking tells us

A market-cap ranking is a snapshot of price times shares, and this week's flip shows how fragile it is. SpaceX passed TSMC on the day its earnings were fresh and lost the position when the unlock, the spending and the sector selloff arrived together. TSMC reported solid Q3 growth of 41.2% in revenue, so its slide reflects the chip rout more than its own results.
First, whether $140 holds on a closing basis. Second, how the unlocked shares trade over the coming weeks. Third, any detail on how Q4 capex of $35 billion to $40 billion will be funded. Fourth, news from the SpaceX and Tesla committees. Fifth, whether chips stabilize, since SpaceX has traded with the AI group this week.
Rankings reward speed, while balance sheets reward patience. For the next few weeks, I am treating the market-cap race as weather and the funding plan as climate: the first changes every hour, and the second decides which company is larger a year from now. #ShareWeekly
#SpaceXMarketCapSurpassesTSMC

Falcon_Official2026-10-22 04:59:44

#SpaceXMarketCapSurpassesTSMC
#WCTCS9 {currencycard:spot}(SPCX_USDT) ‌SpaceX vs TSMC: the overtake that lasted a few hours, and where the gap stands at $155.75

SpaceX briefly passed TSMC in market value on Wednesday, and the headline spread fast. The margin was thin, though, so here are three snapshots, a check on what moved them, and the current gap.

The June peak

After its June debut, SpaceX shares ended one Monday nearly 20% higher, pushing market value to $2.52 trillion and past TSMC. That was the high point. By late July, shares had fallen roughly 50% from the peak reached the week after the IPO. The June overtake came on IPO excitement, not on earnings.

Early October

As of October 5, TSMC ranked sixth with a market value of about $2.45 trillion, and SpaceX ranked seventh at about $2.09 trillion. TSMC was ahead by roughly $360 billion.

Wednesday, October 21

Then SpaceX reported. Third-quarter revenue came in at $14.6 billion, up 161%, and shares surged more than 12% intraday to $165.641, the biggest single-day gain since August, with market value reaching $2.25 trillion. At one reading, SpaceX traded at $163.39 with a market cap of $2.22 trillion, against TSMC's $2.21 trillion at $426.535 per share. That was the overtake, and it was about $10 billion wide.

Why it did not hold

The gain narrowed through the session. It had faded to above 9% by publication time, and SPCX closed at $159.31, up 7.79%. At $155.75, I estimate market value at about $2.12 trillion, using the share count implied by the $2.22 trillion reading at $163.39. TSMC was near $2.21 trillion at the same time. By my math, SPCX needs about $162.60, roughly 4.4% higher, to match it again. Providers use different share counts, so treat the exact gap as approximate.

Why TSMC slipped

TSMC's own results were not the cause. It reported Q3 revenue of about $46.72 billion, up 41.2%, and guided Q4 revenue to $52.3 billion to $54.3 billion. Its market value fell from about $2.45 trillion on October 5 to about $2.21 trillion, roughly 10% lower by my math, during a broad pullback in AI chip shares. So the flip reflects TSMC's decline as much as SpaceX's rise.

The valuation gap behind the headline

SpaceX's Q3 revenue of $14.6 billion annualizes to about $58 billion, which puts its market value at roughly 36 times annualized sales. TSMC's $46.72 billion annualizes to about $187 billion, or roughly 12 times. By my calculation, the market pays about three times as much per dollar of revenue for SpaceX.

The reason is growth expectations. Musk projected annual recurring revenue could reach as much as $1 trillion by the end of 2027, and Q1 2027 revenue guidance is $33 billion to $37 billion. Investors are pricing a plan that has to be delivered.

The profit side

SpaceX posted its first profit as a public company, with operating income of $2.79 billion and net income of $4.4 billion, while guiding Q4 capital spending to $35 billion to $40 billion. Annualizing net income gives roughly $17.6 billion, which puts the stock near 120 times earnings by my arithmetic. TSMC is a mature profit engine with steady growth, which is why the two valuations differ so much.

What the ranking does and does not show

A market-cap ranking is share price times share count, and it changes every tick. It does not measure business size, profit stability or earnings quality. SPCX also remains well below its highs: against a 52-week high near $225.64, today's price is about 31% lower by my estimate.

Levels at $155.75

Resistance: $159.31 (Wednesday's close), then $162.60 (the level that matches TSMC), then the $163 to $166 intraday high zone.
Support: $150 to $152, then $147.79, the pre-earnings close. A break below $147.79 would erase the earnings gap.

What decides the next move

1. Capex funding. A $35 billion to $40 billion quarter needs a clear financing path.
2. Tesla merger committees. Both companies formed special committees, and any news could move the stock, though Musk said a deal is not a certainty.
3. TSMC's recovery. A rebound in chip shares would widen its lead again.
4. Execution. AI revenue growth and the Q1 guide of $33 billion to $37 billion are the proof points.

My take

The overtake was a momentum signal, not a verdict. The substance sits in revenue growth, profit and spending. I would track those, size small, and avoid chasing a stock that moved double digits in a single session.
SpaceX deserve a higher value than TSMC, and which level are you watching.
Manage your risk. #Shareweekly @Gate_Square

This page contains third-party content and does not constitute any advice, nor does it represent Gate's endorsement of such views. For details, please see disclaimer.

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PrinceMagsi786

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ETF flows making a comeback? 💰

PrinceMagsi786

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First Review

$84K next? 👀

#SpaceXMarketCapSurpassesTSMC #WCTCS9 SpaceX vs TSMC, day two: how a $2.2 trillion overtake unwound in a single session

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