Many people are waiting for the Fed to leave rates unchanged in October, ready to treat it as bullish. What I care more about is this: if a pause has already been priced in, who will keep buying after the decision?

With the October 27–28 FOMC meeting approaching, markets are leaning toward rates staying unchanged. But remember, the Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4%. Even if it stands pat this time, that can't be taken as a sign that tightening is over.
Inflation is still an issue. US CPI rose 3.7% year over year and 0.6% month over month in September; core CPI rose 0.3% month over month. In the same period, PPI rose 1.3% month over month and 6.3% year over year, showing that cost pressures on businesses are also significant. Whether energy prices continue to feed through is an unavoidable variable going forward.
For crypto, I think the risk to watch for is “rates stay unchanged, but expectations turn more hawkish.” If the statement continues to emphasize inflation risks and leaves room for further hikes, the boost in sentiment from a pause may not translate into a sustained rally. Conversely, only if expectations for further tightening cool can pressure on risk assets truly ease.
So this time, I’ll look at the decision alongside the post-meeting remarks, then watch the dollar, Treasury yields, and whether BTC can hold onto its gains. A brief spike when the news breaks doesn’t mean investors have embraced a new trend.
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