#TeslaQ3EarningsPreview

#每周来晒
‍#特斯拉Q3财报 $TSLA #ShareWeekly
Everyone will quote EPS tonight. I’d rather grade other numbers, because they decide whether this move holds. Here’s my sheet, with chart levels refreshed from this morning.

1. 20.5 GWh: what storage must do in Q4
Tesla deployed 13.7 GWh in Q3, up 9.6% on last year but 13.8% below the 15.9 GWh analysts expected. Year to date that’s 36.0 GWh (8.8 + 13.5 + 13.7). One preview cites a 2026 consensus of 56.5 GWh, which would require 20.5 GWh in Q4, about 50% above Q3 (my math). Commentary on that gap matters more to me than the quarter’s EPS.

2. 98.3%: how concentrated the lineup is
Model 3 and Model Y were 478,237 of 486,532 deliveries, about 98.3% (my math). All other models fell 47.9% year over year to 8,295, after the S and X lines were shut to make room for Optimus. The delivery beat came from two models.

3. $25B vs $5.8B: the capex ramp
Tesla guided to more than $25B of 2026 capex against about $8.5B last year, roughly 2.9x (my math). Q2 capex was about $5.8B (operating cash flow of $4.7B minus free cash flow of -$1.1B, my math), while a $25B year averages $6.25B a quarter. Free cash flow is expected near -$4.9B tonight against -$1.1B in Q2, about 4.5x worse (my math). Previews put the automotive gross margin baseline around 16–17%, unconfirmed until the release. A margin above that, with spending still rising, would show the core is paying for the pivot.

4. October 30: a regulatory flag
One preview flags a regulatory deadline on October 30, nine days after the print, tied to Cybercab. It also says NHTSA asked 21 questions on certification while reviewing roughly 1,000 robotaxi vehicles. I couldn’t find more detail, so I treat it as a flag, not a fact. Regulatory milestones may matter more than paid-mile counts.

5. The chart (levels from my screenshot this morning)
TSLA is at 380.14, +3.3% from the 368.09 I saw yesterday (my math). It’s now above its 14/21/35-day averages (372.83, 369.99, 367.89), which it sat inside before.

Resistance at 389.27: +2.4%
Support at 349.72: -8.0%
RSI is 57.0, and the MACD histogram is -0.32 (MACD 2.30 versus signal 2.61, close to crossing)

Reward/risk to those levels is about 0.3:1 (my math). Options imply roughly a 5.5%–7.5% move, which from 380.14 is a range of about $352 to $409 at the widest (my math). A normal-size up move clears 389 easily, while a normal-size down move stops about 0.6% short of support. The chart reacts faster to good news than to bad.

6. Relative strength raises the bar
QQQ is at 716.35, below all three of its averages (35-day 729.10, 14-day 738.95), 0.5% above its support at 712.84, with RSI 40.5. TSLA’s RSI is 57.0, so it enters the print about 16 points stronger than the index (my math). Strength before earnings often means more is already priced in.

My take: I’m treating tonight as a cash-flow and storage test, with EPS as the sideshow. With strong relative strength and resistance only 2.4% away, a good print may already be partly priced, so I’m not chasing. I’d rather wait for the call.

Not financial advice.

Which number decides it for you: storage, cash flow or margin? And is your line on TSLA 389 or 350?