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SpaceX closed Tuesday at $147.79, reported a blowout quarter after the bell, and now trades near $158.04. That is a gain of about 6.9% by my math. Here is the full technical read with the fundamentals that feed it.
The gap
SpaceX closed at $147.79, down 0.11%, then rose to $157.59 in after-hours trading, a gain of 6.63%. Premarket quotes went even higher, with one showing $161.54, up 9.3%. Today's high so far is $160.37. The price has since faded from the premarket peak, so buyers are taking profits while holding most of the gain.
What the earnings said
Operating income was $2.79 billion against a loss of $143 million in the previous quarter, with capex of $19.59 billion and net cash of $51 billion. EPS of $0.35 was against about $0.13 expected, and net income was $4.4 billion. The segment mix matters. Connectivity earned a 45% operating margin on $5.25 billion of revenue, while the Super Intelligence unit earned $431 million of operating income on $7.56 billion of revenue and took 84% of capex.
The guidance is the catch. Q4 capex is planned at $35 billion to $40 billion, roughly 80% to 100% above this quarter's $19.6 billion by my math. Management guided Q1 2027 revenue to $33 billion to $37 billion, and Musk voiced confidence in adding 10 gigawatts of compute in 2027. Growth is huge, but so is the spending.
Moving average ladder
Technical sources before the report show the setup the stock had to overcome. The 20-day SMA stood at 154.7 and the 50-day SMA at 148.62, and the 50-day EMA at 150.36 and the 20-day volume-weighted average at 155.54. The 60-day average sat near $140.98.
At $158.04, the stock is above all of them: about 2.2% above the 20-day SMA, 6.3% above the 50-day SMA, 5.1% above the 50-day EMA and about 12% above the 60-day average. A day ago it was below the 20-day. The earnings gap flipped the structure from bearish to neutral-positive.
Fibonacci check
Using my own calculation on the pullback from the $176.42 high on October 6 to the $140.66 low on October 15, the 38.2% retracement is near $154.32, the 50% near $158.54 and the 61.8% near $162.76. Price is sitting just under the 50% line. A daily close above $158.54 would put $162.76 next.
Momentum
Before earnings, RSI(14) was 45.04, neutral, and the daily MACD was negative at minus 2.25. That is a stock with cooled momentum, not an overbought one. A jump of this size usually pushes RSI back toward 55 to 60, and MACD toward a bullish cross, but those readings need a fresh close to confirm. The gap itself is a momentum signal, and volume on the follow-through will show whether it is real.
Levels
Resistance: $160.37 (today's high), $161.54 (premarket peak), then $162.76 at the 61.8% retracement, then the $164 to $167 supply zone, and the October 6 high at $176.42.
Support: $155.5 to $156, which matches the 20-day area, then the $150 to $152 gap zone, then Tuesday's close at $147.79, and the key $140 to $143 floor.
By my math, $160.37 is 1.5% above, $167 is 5.7% above, and $176.42 is 11.6% above. On the downside, $155.54 is 1.6% below, $147.79 is 6.5% below, and $140.66 is 11.0% below.
The analyst backdrop
The average 12-month target is $222.71, with a high of $450 and a low of $118, and 30 analysts recommend buying against 3 recommending selling. From $158.04, the average target implies about 41% upside. Macquarie maintained Outperform with a $250 target. Targets lag price, so I treat them as sentiment.
The cautionary precedent
After SpaceX's first earnings beat as a public company, shares fell 13.6% the next session on August 5. Spending was the reason then, and spending is front and center again with a Q4 capex guide of $35 billion to $40 billion.
Scenarios
Constructive: the stock holds above $155.5, closes above $158.54 and clears $162.76. Targets: $167, then the $176.42 high.
Neutral: price consolidates between $150 and $161 as the market digests guidance.
Cautious: profit-taking fills the gap, with a close below $155 and then a retest of $150 to $152. A close below $147.79 would erase the earnings move.
Why Tesla matters tonight
Tesla reports after the close, and the merger committees mentioned on the call link the two stocks. A strong Tesla report could extend sentiment, while a weak one could hit AI-linked names. BTC is near $83,008, and the Fed meets October 27-28.
I would not chase the gap. I would watch whether $155.5 holds on a pullback, size modestly because of heavy capex risk, and use $150 as the line that tells me the gap is failing. @Gate_Square
SpaceX reports its third-quarter results tonight after the market closes, with the call at 4:30 p.m. ET. With SPCX near $144.55, here is a decoder for what each outcome could mean, built on the latest consensus and options data.
The setup in four numbers
SPCX closed Friday at $146.03 and has lost more than 10% over the week. It is in a pullback after a rally from an August low near $105 to a high near $176 in early October. By my math, $144.55 is about 18% below that high and about 38% above the August low. The price sits in the middle of a very wide range.
The consensus
Bloomberg consensus expects revenue of $12.89 billion, adjusted EPS of $0.149 and EBITDA of $6.62 billion. Analysts forecast a positive EPS of $0.13 against a loss of $0.09 in Q2. If met, it would be the first positive quarterly EPS since going public. Q2 revenue was $7.81 billion, up 92% year over year, so the consensus implies growth of about 65% from Q2 by my calculation.
The mix is the real story
The market expects AI revenue of about $6.4 billion, up about 150% from $2.56 billion in Q2, surpassing Starlink for the first time to become the largest revenue source. Connectivity is forecast at about $4.84 billion against $4.29 billion last quarter, and FactSet expects $6.47 billion in AI revenue. Together, AI and connectivity make up about 88% of expected revenue by my math. Consensus also expects about 14.3 million consumer Starlink subscribers.
The cost side
Growth is expensive. In Q2, SpaceX spent $18.4 billion on capital expenditures, including $15.83 billion on AI infrastructure. In early October, the company said it plans to raise $40 billion to buy Nvidia AI chips. Its price-to-sales ratio is about 155 times, well above its historical median. That is why one preview says AI monetisation, capex guidance and future financing requirements will likely matter more than headline earnings.
What the options market expects
Options traders are pricing in a 7.8% move after earnings. Other estimates are tighter: one calculates plus or minus 6.8%, and another sees 5.3%. At $144.55, a 7.8% move means a range of roughly $133 to $156. Puts cluster near $140 and calls near $150, which frames the first levels to watch.
The decoder
Beat: revenue above about $13 billion, EPS at or above $0.15, and AI revenue clearly above $6.4 billion. If capex stays controlled and management shows progress toward the $100 billion-plus revenue run-rate target, the bull case strengthens. The first upside reference is the $150 call cluster, then $156 at the top of the implied range. The average analyst target of $217.50 is about 50% above $144.55, though targets lag price.
Meet: numbers land near consensus. The stock reaction will hinge on guidance, financing and the quality of growth. I would expect a choppy move inside the implied range.
Miss or financing shock: revenue light, AI conversion slower than expected, or capex raised sharply with a larger funding need. One technical preview is already asking whether the stock can hold $140, and a break would put the $133 area in play, about 8% below the current price.
What makes this quarter different
This is only the second full quarterly report since the listing, and the first real test of whether AI compute contracts turn into revenue. Analysts are mostly positive, with a Moderate Buy consensus built on 28 Buys, 5 Holds and 2 Sells, and Evercore raised its target to $275. Conviction is higher than price action, which is why the reaction can be sharp either way.
Upside catalysts worth listening for
Starlink Mobile progress, since SpaceX plans to buy wireless spectrum for about $8 billion to help reach users indoors, and the FCC approval of 15,000 more next-generation satellites. Subscriber growth and average revenue per user would also shape profit expectations.
The market backdrop
Tonight sits inside a dense week. Tesla reports tomorrow, Solana's Alpenglow upgrade is scheduled for the same day, Western Digital reports Thursday, and the Fed meets October 27-28. The Nasdaq is coming off a loss of nearly 5%, and BTC is near $81,800, so risk appetite is fragile. A weak SpaceX print could pressure AI-linked assets broadly, while a strong one could help sentiment into Tesla.
How I would handle it
I would not trade the first headline. I would wait for the call, watch capex and AI capacity commentary, keep size small and avoid leverage around the release. The after-hours move often reverses by the next open.
#SpaceXQ3Earnings $SPCX