#SpaceXQ3Earnings $SPCX #ShareWeekly @Gate_Square

Instead of guessing the headline, I’d rather decide in advance how to grade tonight’s print. Here’s my scorecard.

1. The setup
SpaceX reports after the close today, with the call at 4:30 pm ET (20:30 UTC). It’s only its second report as a public company. SPCX is around 147.97 on my chart, about 1.3% above Friday’s close of $146.03 (my math). One options read now prices a move of about 7.8%, or $11.39, which gives a range of roughly $134.6 to $157.4 (my math). Other previews quoted a smaller move, so the priced-in swing has widened.

2. Line 1: revenue against $12.89B
Revenue went $4.69B in Q1, then $7.81B in Q2, and consensus is $12.89B for Q3. That’s +65% on Q2, almost the same pace as Q1 to Q2 (+66%, my math). The Street is assuming growth holds steady, not slows. A number at or above consensus is the minimum, and a miss would hurt.

3. Line 2: the AI segment
AI revenue is expected near $6.4–6.5B versus $2.56B in Q2, up about 153% (my math). In Q2, the AI unit lost $1.26B against an expected $2.39B loss, while AI spending jumped to $15.8B from $7.7B in Q1. One report cites a $47.5B backlog, about 3.7x a quarter’s revenue (my math, single-source). I’d grade on whether the AI loss stays narrower than Q2’s.

4. Line 3: capex and cash
Q2 capex was $18.4B. Reported consensus for Q3 is around $19.6B, with free cash flow near -$11.6B (single-source). Capex growing faster than revenue would be the red flag.

5. Line 4: Starlink quality
Connectivity revenue estimates vary by source, from about $4.45B to $4.9B, versus $4.29B in Q2. Q2 operating margin was 38.6%, and enterprise and government revenue more than doubled to $1.81B, while revenue per consumer subscriber was weaker. Subscribers are expected at 14.3M versus 12M in June. I’d watch margin and revenue per subscriber, not just user count.

6. Chart check (levels from my screenshot)

Support at 138.45: -6.4%
35-day at 152.23: +2.9%, 21-day at 154.92: +4.7%, 14-day at 157.63: +6.5%
Resistance at 171.70: +16.0%
RSI is 45, and the MACD histogram is -2.12

The upper end of the implied range lands almost exactly on the 14-day average, and the lower end falls below support. So a bad print breaks the chart, while a good one only gets back to resistance on the way up.

My take: I’d call it a clean print if revenue meets consensus, the AI loss comes in narrower than Q2, and capex doesn’t outrun revenue. With risk skewed to the downside on the chart, I’m waiting for the numbers instead of guessing the headline.

Not financial advice.

What’s on your scorecard: revenue, AI losses, capex or Starlink margins? And is your line on SPCX 138.45 or 157?