#UnitreeTechSurges18% $UNITREE #ShareWeekly @Gate_Square

Policy headlines are easy to love. Valuation arithmetic is less fun, but it’s what decides whether a rally like Monday’s holds.

1. What happened on Monday
Unitree (688836.SH) rose as much as 18% intraday, topped ¥500, and closed up 16.15% at ¥495.92. Market cap came back above ¥200 billion (¥200.58B), its biggest single-day gain since the debut-day surge.

2. The catalysts
Nine departments led by the Ministry of Commerce issued guidance on technology-driven commerce that explicitly mentions embodied AI in home services and trade logistics, which market participants called a first for a national commerce document. National statistics showed 794,781 industrial robots produced in the first nine months (+29.1%) and about 15.59M service robots (+7.9%). Separately, the first six national humanoid robot standards were approved, effective April 1, 2027. A partner conference is reportedly set for October 22 (single-source).

3. The mismatch I’d flag
The policy targets adoption in commerce and services. Industrial robot output is a different product category as I understand it. Unitree’s own filings showed research and education as the majority of sales, with industrial under 10% in the first three quarters of 2025. The theme is real, but the link to Unitree’s revenue is indirect.

4. The valuation math (my math)
¥200.58B on 2025 revenue of ¥1.699B is about 118x sales. On first-half revenue annualized (¥1.152B × 2), it’s about 87x. One broker’s 2026 net profit forecast of about ¥630M implies roughly 318x. First-half revenue rose 48.5%, but profit excluding one-offs fell 19.3% (single-source). An August estimate put a reasonable range at ¥100–150B, which would make today’s cap 34% to 101% above it (single-source).

5. The price path (my math)
IPO price ¥150.80, debut open ¥1,100, day-one close about ¥845 (implied by the +460% close). At ¥495.92 it’s +229% versus the IPO price but 41% below the day-one close and 55% below the debut open. Anyone who bought on day one is still under water, which is a source of overhead supply.

6. Chart check (UNITREE/USDT, levels from my screenshot)
Price is 77.03.

Resistance at 77.26: +0.3%
50-day at 71.16: price is 7.6% above it
Support at 58.42: -24.2%
RSI is 67.6, and the MACD histogram is +1.52 while the MACD line is still below zero

Price is pressing resistance with 24% of room down to support, which is a poor reward/risk on paper (my math). Note that this instrument isn’t the A-share itself, and its price can differ from the stock, so check what it tracks.

My take: the theme has support from policy and data, but Monday’s move already pays for a lot of it. At roughly 118x sales, with profit growth weaker than revenue growth, I’d treat this as a momentum bounce until earnings say otherwise. I’m watching October 22 and the next earnings update, and I’m not chasing near resistance with RSI close to 70.

Not financial advice.

Do you see Monday’s jump as the start of a policy-driven rerating or just a bounce inside a long pullback from the debut peak? And which matters more to you here: policy headlines or earnings?