#TeslaQ3EarningsPreview $TSLA

‍#特斯拉Q3财报
‍#每周来晒
Tesla reports Q3 after the close tomorrow (Oct 21, call at 5:30 pm ET), and SpaceX reports tonight, so the market gets two Musk-company prints back to back. My view: the headline numbers matter less than margins and the growth story.

1. What’s expected (and what to ignore)
Consensus adjusted EPS is about $0.43–$0.45 on revenue of roughly $27.8–$28.1B. A year ago it was $0.50 on about $28.1B. That’s EPS down roughly 10–14% on flat revenue (my math). Analyst estimates span $0.30 to $0.70, so a wide miss or beat is possible. One preview showing +24% revenue growth looks like an error, so I’d ignore it.

2. The setup is shakier than the delivery beat suggests
EPS estimates have drifted from about $0.55 to $0.45 over 90 days, roughly -18%. Last quarter Tesla posted $0.33 against a $0.50 consensus, a miss of about 34% (my math), and it has beaten EPS in only 4 of the last 8 quarters.

3. Deliveries: a beat, but check the source
Q3 deliveries were 486,532 against about 461,974 expected, a 5.3% beat (my math), though still about 2.1% below last year. Production was 464,391, so deliveries exceeded production by 22,141 units, about 4.6% of deliveries (my math). That points to inventory being drawn down, so I wouldn’t read it as a clean demand signal.

4. Margins and capex
Automotive gross margin is projected near 17%, and one report says 2026 capex could exceed $25B. Higher spending with thin margins is what pressures free cash flow. I’d treat both as reported estimates, not guidance.

5. Robotaxi: ask for numbers, not vision
Cumulative paid Robotaxi miles rose from 1.7M in Q1 to 2.5M in Q2, which is +47% (my math). The Q3 figure is the KPI to watch, along with FSD subscriptions. Vague timelines won’t carry the stock if margins disappoint.

6. Chart check (levels from my screenshot)
Price is around 368.09.

35-day at 367.29 (-0.2%), 14-day at 370.02 (+0.5%), 21-day at 370.23 (+0.6%): price is sitting right inside the average cluster
Resistance at 390.06: +6.0%
Support at 349.90: -4.9%
RSI is 50.6, up from 42 at Friday’s close. MACD histogram is -1.80.

Annualizing $0.45 gives $1.80, which puts the stock near 200x earnings (my math, rough). Reward/risk to the nearest levels is about 1.2:1, and a typical earnings move can reach either level in a single session. The chart is neutral, so the print decides.

My take: I’m not betting on the EPS number. I’m watching automotive margin, capex guidance and the Q3 Robotaxi miles. Margins near 17% with clear cost control could help price hold the 350 area, while another EPS miss with vague guidance would put 349.90 in play.

Not financial advice.

What’s your call on the print: does margin or Robotaxi decide the reaction? And is your line on TSLA 349.90 or 390?