#SpaceXQ3Earnings $SPCX #ShareWeekly

Three numbers frame tomorrow’s print: $12.89B, $19.61B and 5.3%. Here’s how I’d read each.

1. What the Street expects
Revenue of $12.89B, adjusted EBITDA of $6.62B and adjusted EPS of about $0.14–$0.15, with estimates ranging from $0.11 to $0.23. That would be about +65% on Q2’s $7.8B (my math) and the first profit after a $541M Q2 loss. Fine print: there’s no clean GAAP consensus, so “profit” may be an adjusted headline.

2. The revenue mix has changed (my math)
Consensus splits roughly $6.4B from AI compute, $4.9B from Starlink and about $1.3B from space and launch. That’s around 50% AI, 38% connectivity and 10% launch. The market is increasingly pricing a compute company that also launches rockets. Starlink subscriber consensus is 14.3M versus 12M last quarter, which is +19% (my math).

3. Capex is the swing factor
Consensus capex is $19.61B, up from $18.4B, or about 1.5x revenue (my math), with free cash flow near -$11.6B. In Q2, an $18.4B capex number hurt the stock despite a revenue beat. One report also mentions a roughly $40B funding plan, which I’d treat as single-source. A revenue beat paired with higher capex could set up a “sell the beat” reaction.

4. The implied move vs my chart
Options reportedly imply a move of about 5.3% (single-source). From $146.03, that’s roughly $138.3 to $153.8 (my math). My chart levels:

Support at 138.89: -4.9%
35-day at 152.05: +4.1%, 21-day at 155.15: +6.2%, 14-day at 157.73: +8.0%
Resistance at 171.65: +17.5%
RSI is 43, and the MACD histogram is -1.96.

The implied range lines up almost exactly with support below and the first average above, so a move past either would be a real signal. Shares fell about 9–10% this week into the print, so the bar is lower than it was a week ago.

5. The Starlink and Starship checklist
I’d watch Starlink subscriber adds and revenue per user, and any commentary on the roughly $8B spectrum deal for mobile. On compute, management’s goal is 2+ gigawatts by year-end and a $100B annualized run rate, and one brokerage sees about $104B. On Starship, Flight 14 reached orbit with 26 Starlink V3 satellites, so a Flight 15 date would be a catalyst. Upcoming lock-up expiries are an overhang.

6. Valuation context
At a reported market cap near $1.9T, Q3 consensus annualizes to about $51.6B of revenue, or about 37x sales (my math). If the $100B run-rate target is hit, that drops to about 19x. The price already assumes the run-rate story.

My take: several analysts expect a revenue beat, so the real questions are capex, funding and guidance. After the print I’m watching 138.9 and 152. A close below 138.9 says the market wants cheaper growth, and a close above 155 says it forgives the spending. I’m not trading the headline.

Not financial advice.

Do you expect the market to reward the revenue beat or punish the capex? And what’s your line on SPCX after earnings: 138.9 or 155?