#AltcoinReboundLosesMomentum $SUI $AVAX $SOL #ShareWeekly

10x Research’s weekly numbers are the cleanest summary I’ve seen: 141 tracked altcoins fell an average of 14% last week while BTC fell 3%. Here’s what’s behind it and what my charts add.

1. The ratio and the recovery math
Alts fell about 4.7x as much as BTC (my math). The recovery math is harsher: a 14% drop needs about +16.3% to get back, versus +3.1% for BTC’s 3% drop (my math). That’s why altcoin rebounds feel slow even when they’re sharp.

2. Liquidity is the real story
The report flags falling volume, shrinking stablecoin supply and ETF net outflows. One flow summary has US spot BTC ETFs at -$228.4M and ETH ETFs at -$320.1M for Oct 12–16, though I’d treat that as single-source. An on-chain analyst reportedly says over $134B left the altcoin market in 15 days and only about 52% of listed alts remain above their 200-day average (also single-source). Less fuel means smaller rallies.

3. Derivatives haven’t caught up
Options stress is low and speculative CME futures positioning is still near high levels, even though spot weakened. Either spot is overdoing it or derivatives are late. If spot stays weak, my hypothesis is that derivatives eventually adjust lower. That’s a hypothesis, not a fact.

4. My charts agree, with a twist
Versus my Friday screenshot, BTC is +0.6%, while ETH is -0.8%, SOL -0.5%, XRP -2.1%, SUI -3.0% and AVAX -3.4%. The five alts average about -2.0% (rough, since timestamps differ; my math). Every marked support line also sits lower than on Friday, by 0.7% for BTC but 2.4% to 4.2% for ETH, SOL, SUI and AVAX (my math). That suggests the weekend dip hit alts harder.

Breadth: three of six charts (BTC, AVAX, SUI) sit above their 50-day averages, while ETH, SOL and XRP are below. Only BTC has an RSI above 50 (51.3). The alts are SUI 47, AVAX 45, SOL 42, ETH 40 and XRP 38.

5. The related coins (levels from my screenshot)

SUI at 1.0093: price is 5.3% above its 50-day (0.9586), support at 0.9437 (-6.5%), resistance at 1.2456 (+23.4%)
AVAX at 9.756: price is 3.2% above its 50-day (9.456), support at 9.390 (-3.8%), resistance at 11.635 (+19.3%)
SOL at 105.64: 50-day at 109.44 (+3.6%), support at 98.59 (-6.7%), resistance at 124.84 (+18.2%)

ETH at 2,427.86 is also below its 50-day (2,551.81, +5.1%). SUI and AVAX are holding up better than SOL and ETH, but AVAX is within 4% of its support.

6. What would change my mind
ETH reclaiming its 50-day, stablecoin supply no longer shrinking, ETF flows turning positive, and more than one alt getting an RSI above 50.

My take: another bounce is possible, since oversold markets do bounce. But a sustained rebound needs liquidity, and volume, stablecoin supply and ETF flows all point the wrong way right now. I treat alt rallies as trades with tight invalidation levels, not trend changes.

Not financial advice.

Do you trade alt bounces here or wait for liquidity to turn first? And which of SUI, AVAX or SOL do you think has the cleanest setup?