‌$SOL Weekly Report: range, position and indicators at $104.27

Solana trades around $104.27 today. It is a week of tight ranges, a defended $100 floor and a major network upgrade on the calendar. Here is the full picture.

Price position: how high and how low

SOL slipped to $100.43 this week, its lowest since mid-September, before buyers defended $100 again. A rebound from $100.62 reached $106.20 on Thursday, and today's session high is $107.44. By my math, price now sits about 3.8% above the week low and about 3% below today's high.

Performance against the market, measured as the rebound from each coin's weekly low: SOL +3.8%, ETH +4.5% (from $2,324), BTC +2.5% (from $79,694). SOL is bouncing in line with the market, slightly ahead of Bitcoin and slightly behind Ethereum. SOL/BTC is about 0.00128.

Indicators

- Averages: price is below every tracked short-term moving average, and the only average it holds above is the 200-day SMA at $87.52, about 19% below today's price. That preserves the longer trend, but it is far from near-term support.
- MACD: both the line and signal read -1.7292, with the histogram at exactly zero, which means momentum is flat, not accelerating.
- RSI: the 14-day RSI recovered to 41.17 after dipping near 38, its weakest reading since mid-June. That is below the neutral 50 line, but it has stopped falling.
- Bollinger Bands: %B is 0.1757, placing SOL near the lower band at $100.51.
- Weekly structure: the weekly 50-period average near $98.99 sits just beneath the recent $100.62 low, so SOL is about 5% above it. Weekly resistance sits at $112.43, roughly 8% higher.

Levels

Support: $102.49, then $100.02, then the $98.99 weekly average. Liquidation data adds context: visible leveraged bands around $100 to $101 and $96 to $97 sit in the same area, so a break could accelerate.
Resistance: $107.44, then $109.92, which lines up with the 50-day SMA, and the $112 to $113 weekly zone. Holding $99 to $101 preserves a route back toward $108 to $110.

The catalyst: Alpenglow on October 21

The Solana Foundation and the Anza team scheduled the Alpenglow consensus upgrade for epoch 1064 on October 21, around 15:00 UTC. It replaces TowerBFT with the Votor voting protocol, targeting finality of about 150 milliseconds against roughly 12.8 seconds today. Programs, transaction formats and fees are not changed. One practical note: vote transactions will leave blocks, so TPS dashboards may show sharply lower numbers without any drop in real activity.

Historical context argues for caution on price. Upgrades are often priced in, and a better network does not guarantee a rally. US Solana funds also recorded outflows in most October sessions, according to SoSoValue, so demand from institutions has been soft.

Scenarios

Bullish: SOL holds $100 to $102, clears $107.44 and then $109.92, with $112.43 as the target.
Neutral: SOL trades between $100 and $108 into the upgrade, with volatility around the event.
Bearish: a daily close below $100 opens $98.99, and then the $96 to $97 liquidation band.

Macro backdrop

The wider market is in relief mode. Fed Chair Warsh avoided hawkish signals, hike odds fell to about 15%, and BTC is holding near $81,650. But hot inflation data this week shows risk can return quickly, and the Fed meets on October 27-28.

My plan

I am watching $100 as the line that decides the week. I would not add leverage before the upgrade, keep size modest, and wait for a daily close above $109.92 before calling a trend change.
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