Brent crude hits its second-highest level of the year, the Fed’s rate decision looms at month-end, and midterm elections are approaching! Where will the market go?

Waking up to Brent crude nearing $110 and New York crude nearing the $100 mark has dampened the oversold rebound momentum in risk assets, as well as the short- to medium-term rebound demand for gold and silver;
On top of that, this week’s CPI/PPI readings, which far exceeded expectations, have put Trump squarely in the hot seat. There are less than two weeks left in the window. Although he has said he does not intend to eliminate the Persian cat’s new leadership, that is far from enough. Lies can be told, but the market is honest. This time, if Trump and the Republicans refuse to compromise, they risk losing not just the midterm elections but also voters’ trust—and the 2028 election will be all but unwinnable;
The public wants something simple: a real reduction in the cost of living. After years of controlling inflation, Trump has wrecked those years of effort with a single conflict. CPI/PPI are both the second-highest of the year and the second-highest in nearly four years;
This conflict is about far more than tens of billions in military spending. Interest on long-term debt keeps climbing, and the additional interest accrued each year is already more than that. The higher cost of living for the public and the annual rise in social costs, which suppresses consumption, also have a huge impact on GDP;
Without action, don’t expect anything to get done in the second half of the term; both chambers will constrain him. Taking action is the most pragmatic move now. The arrow is already on the string and must be released—this can’t be handled with mere words, because the window of opportunity has already closed;
If current trends continue and there are no measures to bring oil prices down quickly, a rate hike at the month-end decision becomes more likely; it would be a necessary move. Warsh revised the “briefing” ahead of the rate decision, making him even harder for the media to read—and it may also be a way to buy Trump some final time;
BTC support/resistance levels: 87550/85150/81000/78425
The small long position entered at 81600 last night: just take profit or stop out as appropriate if the position is small; if it’s somewhat larger, substantially reduce it while securing breakeven, or exit. You can look for an opportunity to re-enter with an initial position at a lower level;
ETH support/resistance levels: 2850/2695/2403/2345
For now, stick with yesterday’s strategy and wait for an opportunity;
XAU/XAG/SNDK and others have little liquidity over the weekend, so I’m not watching them for now
Trading advice does not constitute any basis for investment decisions: the whole world is waiting for Trump to take further action, but everyone is also prepared for contingencies. You can take a position, but keep it small; many large gold and silver holders have recently been reducing their holdings, all as a result of risk management. Most of your capital should remain on the sidelines until the situation becomes clear. Manage your position well and stay patient—not every moment brings a market surge or crash; most of the time, it’s a test of patience!
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