#KOSPIJumps3.3%

‍#日韩股集体大跌 $SAMSUNG $SKHY
-7.57% on Thursday, +3.3% on Friday. Before anyone calls this a recovery, run the arithmetic.

1. The two-day math
The KOSPI closed Thursday at 5,554.22, its seventh straight loss, after a slide of roughly 20% across those sessions. Circuit breakers reportedly triggered on both exchanges. Friday’s intraday high of about 5,738 is +3.31%, but that regains only about 40% of Thursday’s 454.59-point drop (my math). To get back to Wednesday’s close, around 6,009, the index still needs about +4.7% from that high. A bounce that recovers 40% of a crash is relief, not yet a trend.

2. The same asymmetry in the chips
Samsung closed Thursday at 210,000 won (-9.48%) and SK hynix at 1.262 million won (-11.06%). From those closes, a roughly 4% bounce in Samsung recovers about 39% of its drop, and a 3.4% bounce in SK hynix recovers only about 27% (my math). They fell 9–11% in a day and are bouncing 3–4%.

3. Who’s buying, who isn’t
Retail and institutional investors were net buyers, while foreign investors kept selling. The trigger was easing US Treasury yields and a higher US close overnight. Foreign selling matters in a market where chips are the biggest weights. One report also says both chipmakers have finished their buyback programs, which removes one source of support. I’d treat that as single-source.

4. Who led the bounce
Early on, breadth was wide, with gainers far outnumbering decliners, and non-chip heavyweights like Hyundai Motor and the Samsung group’s trading arm led while chips lagged at around +2%. Since then, the chips have caught up to roughly 3.4–3.6% per the card. A durable recovery needs the chips to lead, not just join.

5. Chart check (Samsung, levels from my screenshot)
Price is around 218,500.

Support at 217,691: about -0.4%
14-day at 255,535: +16.9%, 21-day at 256,357: +17.3%, 35-day at 257,871: +18.0%
Resistance at 295,808: +35.4%
RSI is about 33. MACD is -8,986 versus a signal of -2,561, with a histogram of -6,425.

Price sits right on its support line, with the averages about 17% overhead. A low RSI explains a bounce but doesn’t say the damage is done. The SK hynix ADR chart looks similar, with RSI near 31 and price within 0.3% of its own support.

6. What would upgrade this from bounce to recovery

Foreign flows flip from net selling to net buying
The KOSPI reclaims about 6,009
The chips hold Thursday’s closes and lead the move
The Fed meeting on Oct 27–28 stops feeding AI-funding doubts

One brokerage called the selloff overdone but warned of a W-shaped path, meaning a retest of the low. One report puts the index near 8x earnings. That’s cheap on paper, but cheap can stay cheap.

A positioning note: one data report says Gate accounts for roughly 16% of total network positions in SK hynix contracts and 18% in SanDisk, second in both. I’d read that as a sign of where attention is, not which way price goes. Crowded positioning cuts both ways.

My take: relief bounce until proven otherwise. A 40% retrace, continued foreign selling and chips that haven’t led yet don’t add up to a bottom call. I’d rather see Thursday’s closes hold for a couple of sessions with foreign flows turning.

Not financial advice.

Do you see this as the start of a recovery or the first leg of a W? And what would make you trust the bounce: foreign buying or a reclaim of 6,009?