#USMemoryStocksExtendLosses #ShareWeekly #USSeptemberPPIBeatsExpectations

The card says memory stocks “extended losses,” but that’s already a day old. By Thursday’s US close, Micron had reversed from an $858 low to finish at $931.24, up 1.9%. So the better question isn’t “are they still falling?” It’s “was that a bottom or just a bounce?” Here’s how I’d sort it out.

1. The damage first
Six of the largest memory and storage makers lost about $1.09 trillion in combined value between the Oct 2 close and Thursday’s open. Over that stretch Micron was down about 18.7%, Kioxia about 33% and SK hynix about 24%. On Thursday, Korea took the hardest hit: SK hynix fell over 10% and Samsung about 8.7% in Seoul, and the KOSPI reportedly dropped 7.6%.

2. Three triggers at once
China’s CXMT claimed a DRAM architecture breakthrough, with a server chip targeted by year-end. Higher rates and a hot PPI raised doubts about funding for AI spending. And there’s talk of memory oversupply as early as 2029. None of that changes this quarter’s demand, but all of it changes what investors will pay for the peak.

3. The reversal in numbers
Micron fell more than 6% to $858, its lowest since Aug 11, then closed at $931.24. That’s about +8.5% from low to close (my math). The others didn’t bounce as cleanly: Seagate closed -3.2%, Western Digital -2.1% and the SK hynix ADR about -1%. One name reversed, and the rest only stabilized.

4. The bull case isn’t empty
Micron’s COO reportedly said its high-bandwidth memory capacity is sold out through 2027. South Korea’s September chip exports reportedly jumped 263% to $60.3B. Several banks argued CXMT’s impact is overstated, since the relevant standards aren’t set yet. That’s sell-side commentary, not proof, but it explains the dip-buying.

5. Chart check (levels from my screenshot)
Distance from the nearest marked support:

MU at 922.95: -0.7% to 916.26
WDC at 356.16: -0.5% to 354.51
STX at 690.95: -0.2% to 689.83
SK hynix at 146.01: -0.3% to 145.57
Samsung at 218,500: -0.4% to 217,691

All five sit within 1% of their lines. RSI is around 31 for WDC, STX and SK hynix, and 38 for MU, so stretched but not a buy signal by itself. To retake their 14-day averages they’d need roughly +10% (MU) up to +20% (SK hynix). For MU, resistance sits at 1,151.33 (+24.7%), and MACD is below its signal line with a negative histogram.

6. What would separate profit-taking from a weakening cycle

DRAM contract pricing in the next reports
Korea’s Q3 earnings season, due to start the week of Oct 19
Any customer-level confirmation of CXMT’s chip
Whether these supports hold on a daily close

My take: this looks more like a valuation and positioning reset than proof the cycle has turned. A real cycle break shows up in prices and capex, not headlines, and neither has flipped yet. But five names sitting on support lines means one more leg down would change the story fast. I’m not calling a bottom off one reversal day.

Not financial advice.

Do you read Thursday’s Micron reversal as the low or just a bounce? And which matters more to you, CXMT headlines or contract pricing?

@Gate_Square