#USSeptemberPPIBeatsExpectations

#每周来晒
‍#USSeptemberPPIDataRelease
‍#美国9月PPI大超预期
Producer prices just posted their biggest monthly jump since March 2022, and the market’s first reaction was a shrug. That mismatch is the story, so here’s how I’m reading it.

1. The print
PPI rose 1.3% m/m against roughly 0.5–0.6% expected, and 6.3% y/y against about 5.3% (surveys varied), the highest annual rate since December 2022. Core was 0.7% m/m (0.3% expected) and 5.0% y/y (4.4% expected). Producer gasoline jumped 20.3% and energy 10.8%, but core wasn’t a gasoline story. My math: 1.3% annualizes to roughly 17% and core’s 0.7% to about 8.7%. One month of energy shouldn’t be extrapolated.

2. The pipeline gap
PPI is running 6.3% against CPI’s 3.7%, a 2.6-point gap. Core is 5.0% against 2.6%, a 2.4-point gap. Either margins are absorbing the cost or it’s still coming through. The Fed will worry about the second.

3. Why markets shrugged
Stocks closed higher Thursday (S&P +0.3%, Dow +1.1%, Nasdaq composite +0.1%), money rotated into defensives, and the 10-year yield fell about 12bp to roughly 5.07% per one report. Retail sales also slowed (+0.8% against +1.3% in August). My read, which is interpretation and not data: traders are weighing growth and AI-funding worries as much as inflation, so yields fell instead of rising.

4. Fed math
After PPI, October hike odds sat around 30–34%, down from 41–54% intraday after CPI. At least one hike by December is priced near 91%. August core PCE ran 3.0% y/y, and economists lift their September PCE estimates off PPI lines. So PPI moves December from “likely” toward “locked” more than it moves October.

5. BTC
BTC is at 82,046.7, now 0.9% above its 50-day (81,293.2) and 1.4% above my lower line at 80,889.6. RSI is 48.2, but MACD at 255.6 is still under its signal at 760.6. The upper line at 86,379.3 is +5.3%, so that’s roughly 3.7 to 1 against the line below. The 99-day at 73,990.5 is -9.8%. Momentum hasn’t turned, and a close under 80,889.6 erases the reclaim.

6. Stocks and gold
NAS100 at 29,998.56 sits right on its 35-day average (30,005.56) and 0.6% above its lower line at 29,814.98. The 14 and 21-day averages (30,596 / 30,514) are +2.0% and +1.7% away, with RSI at 45.8.
Gold (XAUUSDT) is 4,182.60, roughly 2.6% above CPI-day lows. The MACD histogram turned positive (+7.91), but price is still under all three averages (4,268.42 / 4,291.11 / 4,376.24, which are +2.1% to +4.6% away). Lines sit at 4,234.34 (+1.2%) and 4,102.17 (-1.9%).

My take: A hot PPI that doesn’t push yields up tells me the market isn’t trading inflation alone. I’d treat BTC’s reclaim as unconfirmed until it closes above today’s high (82,528.9) with the 50-day holding underneath. December hike risk is the bigger macro weight than October.

Not financial advice.

Which of BTC, stocks or gold is already pricing the worst case? And did you cut risk after CPI, or buy the dip?