#AnthropicTurnsProfitablebutGrowthSlows #ShareWeekly $ANTHROPIC

Three numbers and one asterisk. Anthropic told investors Q3 revenue was $16.8B, that it was profitable on an adjusted basis, and that growth slowed. The asterisk is the word “adjusted.” Here’s how I’d read it.

1. The numbers (reported, not yet filed)
All of this comes from people briefed at a private investor meeting, and the public filing isn’t out yet. Revenue was about $4.7B in Q1, $11.6B in Q2 and $16.8B in Q3. Reports also mention positive free cash flow and $1.70 of revenue for every $1 spent on compute.

2. The slowdown in math
Q1 to Q2 was roughly +147%. Q2 to Q3 was about +45% (my math). That’s still huge, but sequential growth fell by roughly 70% in one quarter. Q3 annualized comes to about $67B (16.8 × 4).

3. The $110B problem
One report says investors were expecting around $110B annualized by year-end. That’s about $27.5B a quarter, or +64% over Q3. Even if growth held at 45%, Q4 would land near $24.4B, about 11% short. It’s a rough check, since an exit run rate and a quarterly average aren’t identical. But it shows expectations needed re-acceleration, not just continuation. Year-end forecasts have reportedly been trimmed.

4. What “adjusted” can hide
Adjusted measures usually exclude things like stock-based pay or training costs. Reported gross margin figures vary depending on the definition, from about 80% to 85%. Last year’s operating loss was reported above $8B, excluding some write-downs. Until a filing shows GAAP numbers, “profitable” is a company-defined metric.

5. What $2T asks for
At a $2T target and $67B annualized, that’s about 30x revenue (my math). Add $518B of multi-year compute commitments, and buyers are paying for growth that continues and margins that hold. Slower growth at an unchanged price is a repricing risk, and that’s the debate right now.

6. How the market is reading it (levels from my chart)
The ANTHROPIC/USDT contract is around 1,943.

Support at 1,937.31: about -0.3%
99-day at 1,848.09: about -4.9%
50-day at 2,063.64: about +6.2%
Resistance at 2,167.04: about +11.5%
RSI is around 31. MACD is -15.81 versus a signal of +4.59, with a histogram of -20.40, and the drop came on heavy volume.

Price is sitting on support after a sharp fall. My read is that the market is repricing the slowdown. A loss of 1,937 puts the 99-day in play, while a reclaim of the 50-day would suggest the selling was overdone. Keep in mind this is a contract tracking IPO expectations, not the IPO price.

My take: the race is moving from “how fast” to “how fast and how profitable.” Slower growth isn’t failure at this scale, but it’s a bigger problem at a $2T price. I’m waiting for the filing: GAAP numbers, the definitions behind “adjusted,” and any Q4 guidance. I’m not chasing a dip or a headline before that.

Not financial advice.

Does adjusted profit count for you, or only GAAP? And is 45% quarterly growth enough to justify $2T?