#USSeptemberCPITopsEstimates

#ShareWeekly $BTC $XAUT
CPI missed by one-tenth on both headline and core, and the market reacted as if it missed by a full point. Round two is PPI at 8:30 AM ET today, so this is a pre-data read, not a prediction.

1. A small miss, a big repricing
CPI printed 3.7% y/y against 3.6% expected, with the monthly 0.6% in line. Core came in at 2.6% against 2.5%, and +0.3% m/m against 0.2%. Gasoline, up 9.1% on the month, explained about half of the headline gain, so energy was known. Core wasn’t. October hike odds jumped from roughly 22% to somewhere between 35% and 50%+, depending on the time and the tool, then faded toward a third. December sits near 94% in futures-based reports. The Fed meets Oct 27 to 28.

2. Who took the hit (rough, not like-for-like)
BTC went from about $83,800 before the print to $80,787 on my chart, which is -3.6%. ETH fell about 6.5% over 24 hours, roughly 1.8x BTC’s drop (my math). Spot gold lost nearly 2%, to about $4,078. One report has the Nasdaq at -1.9% and the S&P at -1.1%. Crypto, ETH especially, felt it most.

3. BTC is sitting on my line
Price is 80,787.5, and my lower line is 80,786.2, so it’s right on it. BTC also lost its 50-day MA at 81,228.3, now 0.55% overhead. RSI is 44.0. MACD is at 239.9, under its signal at 863.8, with a histogram of -623.9. Momentum has rolled over, but it isn’t deep. Upside to 86,577.1 is +7.2%. Downside to the 99-day at 73,785.7 is -8.7%, and the 200-day at 72,316.2 is -10.5%, with nothing marked in between. That’s about 0.8 to 1 for now.

4. Alts are weaker than BTC
ETH 2,354.55 (RSI 33.8), SOL 102.07 (35.1) and XRP 1.2991 (35.3) all sit within about 0.3% of their lower lines. ETH needs +8.4% to reclaim its 50-day. Its 99-day is only 3.9% below. Near-oversold can stay oversold.

5. Gold looks the calmest
XAUT is 4,129.4, below all three MAs (4,257.2 / 4,291.2 / 4,364.3, which are +3.1% to +5.7% away). But RSI is 39.5 and the MACD histogram just turned positive (+4.1). The 4,080.9 line is -1.2% away and 4,250.2 is +2.9%, about 2.5 to 1. One desk note says dip buying tends to show up in the $4,000 to $4,100 zone. XAUT is a token, so it can differ from spot.

6. PPI is round two
August PPI was 5.4% y/y against 5.3% expected. One preview has +0.5% m/m headline and +0.3% core this time. One site shows BTC’s last four PPI days at +3.4%, -0.4%, 0.0% and -2.2%, so PPI is noisy. But after a hot core, a hot PPI feeds the core PCE estimates and the hike story. A cool one could unwind part of the repricing.

My take: 80,786 is my line today. A daily close back above 81,228 is the first sign of stabilization. A close below puts 73,786 in play. I’m not positioning ahead of 8:30 ET. Yesterday’s first move got extended, so I’d let the first 30 to 60 minutes pass.

Not financial advice.

BTC, stocks or gold: which reacts most to PPI? And are you positioning before the data, or waiting?

@Gate_Square