This morning’s wick ultimately took out “Machi Big Brother” and a whole bunch of leveraged longs. BTC briefly dipped to just above $80,000, and total liquidations across the network in one hour shot straight to $485 million. Long positions accounted for $464 million, with ETH alone making up $200 million.

Huang Licheng went from $56,000 to $12.25 million over four months, only to have this move liquidate him back down to $21,800. That means he worked for more than half a year for nothing and ended up losing money. There’s also a whale holding a $352 million ETH long position that is now sitting on nearly $19 million in unrealized losses. The position is just $60 away from liquidation, so even a slight further drop could trigger a precise wipeout.

Although this wick was painful, it may not necessarily be a bad thing. BTC has now retested the area around $81,000 for the third time. On-chain data also shows that the size of losses has actually been declining with each drop, indicating that panic selling is decreasing. More of the weak hands are cutting losses and exiting, rather than the market undergoing a total collapse. Macroeconomically, higher-than-expected U.S. inflation is certainly weighing on risk assets, but this repeated testing of support in the crypto market looks more like a shakeout of weak positions to build momentum for the next move.

As for altcoins, there’s not much to say. ETH has already fallen below $2,400, while the smaller coins are seeing bloodshed across the board. But the worse things get, the more closely you should watch assets with real narratives and capital attention, rather than blindly buying the dip on garbage coins.

This is obviously not the time to chase shorts. The $80,000 level has already been tested three times. If it breaks, it would be a true collapse; if it holds, this could be a fake breakdown. It’s better to wait for signs of stabilization, such as a high-volume bullish candle reclaiming $81,000, before considering scaling into long positions. Don’t use too much leverage or take on too large a position—the macro pressure is still there, and the Fed can change its tune at the drop of a hat.

This may be the eve of “be greedy when others are fearful,” but don’t get greedy too early. It won’t be too late to enter once the weaker positions have been flushed out more thoroughly. $ETH
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