#美国9月CPI即将公布 #每周来晒 CPI “Revealed” Tonight! Bitcoin Holds Its Breath at $84,000, with “Hawkish Data” Potentially Triggering Two Outcomes

The final inflation report before the Fed’s October decision: markets are betting on no change, but a core inflation upside surprise could bring rate hikes “back from the dead”

I. First, tonight’s key data
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the US September CPI data will be released.
This is the final inflation report before the Fed’s October 27-28 policy meeting and is also crucial for determining the short-term direction.
Market expectations are as follows:
Data August Previous September Forecast
Headline CPI YoY 3.4% 3.6%
Headline CPI MoM 0.4% 0.6%
Core CPI YoY 2.4% 2.5%
Core CPI MoM 0.3% 0.2%
Overall inflation is expected to continue accelerating, with gasoline prices as the main driver—the average US gasoline price reached a record $4.33 per gallon last month, up 37.6% year-on-year.
But the market is really focused on core CPI. Fed officials pay closer attention to core inflation excluding food and energy because it better reflects the “underlying trend” in inflation.

II. Why is tonight’s CPI more important than usual?

Because it will determine whether rates are raised in October.
CME data shows that the market currently prices in about a 77% probability of rates remaining unchanged in October, with only about a 23% probability of a rate hike.
But this “77%” is based on one assumption: that core inflation will not exceed expectations. If core CPI MoM reaches 0.3%, that assumption will be broken.
Bank of America economists’ view is straightforward: core CPI MoM at 0.2% would not change market expectations, but if it reaches 0.3%, it could reignite speculation that the Fed may need to continue tightening in October.
CIBC Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld is more hawkish, directly forecasting core CPI MoM at 0.3% and believing that the Fed will raise rates this month—“too many components are still growing at a pace above 3%.”

III. Three scenarios, three possible moves
Scenario One: Core CPI MoM ≤0.2% (moderately bullish)
Inflation remains moderate, and concerns over an October rate hike are fully dispelled. Bitcoin could test $84,500-$86,000.
Scenario Two: Core CPI MoM at 0.2%, but YoY higher than expected (neutral to range-bound)
The direction remains unclear, and the market continues to trade within the $81,000-$84,000 range while awaiting the October FOMC’s final decision.
Scenario Three: Core CPI MoM ≥0.3% (moderately bearish)
Persistent inflation is confirmed, and the probability of an October rate hike could surge from 23%. Bitcoin could retest $81,000, with a break below targeting $80,000.

IV. Market position: BTC holds its breath at $84,000
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading in a narrow range around $84,000.
Key levels:
Resistance above $84,500-$85,000 A breakout is needed to open the way toward $86,000-$88,000
First support $81,000-$82,000 Recent low area, which has held through multiple tests
Strong support $80,000 Psychological threshold; a break below could accelerate the decline
Ethereum is performing more weakly, fluctuating between $2,400 and $2,550, with insufficient bullish momentum.

One signal worth noting: Although liquidation volumes have expanded, the implied volatility indexes for Bitcoin and Ethereum remain close to their yearly lows, indicating that the options market still expects relatively moderate price volatility ahead. However, put options dominate among the most active 24-hour options recently, showing that traders are still buying downside protection.