#ASMLTSMCQ3EarningsSoon ‍#美股 #Gate股票 $ASML $TSM

ASML already reported this morning, and TSMC reports tomorrow, Oct 15, with its call at 14:00 Taiwan time. So one print is known and one is still a bar to clear. Here’s how I’m splitting it.

1. ASML: what came in
Q3 sales were €11.66B, a record and almost exactly on the ~€11.66B consensus, inside the €11–12B guide. Gross margin was 57.5% against a 55–57% guide. Installed base sales hit €3.29B versus about €2.9B guided, roughly 13% above. Net income was €4.96B and EPS €12.95, up from €7.59 in Q2.

2. The guide is the real story
Q4 is guided to €14.2–15.2B. The €14.7B midpoint is about 26% above Q3. Full-year guidance now sits at €44–45B, with the low end lifted from €43B. My math: first-half sales of about €18.1B plus Q3 leaves roughly a third of the year’s sales for Q4 at the midpoint. That’s back-end loaded, so a shipment slip hits one quarter. Management also said it’s looking at capacity beyond the 30% increase planned for 2028. I haven’t seen the share reaction yet, so treat the chart levels below with that in mind.

3. TSMC: the “record” bar is low
Q3 revenue is already out at a record NT$1.49T, up 50% year on year and above the NT$1.46T estimate. Net profit consensus runs NT$731.8B to NT$746.3B depending on the source, up 62–65%. The prior record is NT$706.56B, so profit could land about 5% under the top estimate and still be a sixth straight record (my math). The real test is margin and guidance. Q3 gross margin guidance is 65–67%, with the 2nm ramp and overseas fabs as the watch items, and 2026 capex is guided at $60–64B versus about $40.5B in 2025. TSMC’s capex is the order book for ASML, which is why the read-through matters.

4. What my daily charts say
ASML at 1,716.28 sits under its 14/21/35-day MAs at 1,790.41 / 1,750.36 / 1,728.81, which are +4.3% / +2.0% / +0.7% away. RSI is 44.7, and MACD sits under its signal line with a negative histogram. Resistance at 1,897.20 is +10.5%, support at 1,619.69 is -5.6%.
TSM at 445.55 is between the 21-day (452.95, +1.7%) and 35-day (440.58, -1.1%), with the 14-day at 460.00 (+3.2%). RSI is 48.3, and MACD is under its signal. Resistance at 483.06 is +8.4%, support at 426.37 is -4.3%.
Upside-to-downside is about 1.9x on ASML and 2.0x on TSM, but both charts are rolling over, not confirmed.

5. Risks
Expectations are high, so a clean beat may not lift either stock. US CPI lands at 8:30 AM ET today and can move valuations either way. Export rules and geopolitics are the usual tail risks for both names.

My take: On fundamentals I’m more convinced by ASML, because the visibility is already in print, and TSMC’s capex number is the best read-through for it. But neither chart is confirmed. I’d want a daily close back above 1,728.81 on ASML and above 452.95 on TSM before calling a turn. A close under 1,619.69 or 426.37 would change my view.

Not financial advice.

Which print are you more bullish on, ASML or TSMC? And are you trading the reaction or waiting for the chart to reclaim its averages?