This morning, $BTC one candle pierced through 81,000, and we almost saw Bitcoin start with a 7 again. Nearly $500 million was liquidated across the entire market over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for more than 83%. I wonder whether Maji was precisely blown up again. It immediately made a V-shaped reversal after the dump and is now close to returning to 83,000. On the chart, MA7 has already turned upward and crossed above MA25, which does suggest that the short-term decline may be stabilizing, but the shadow left by this wick will not disappear so quickly.

The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has climbed to 5.70%, the highest since 2002, while the 10-year yield also reached 5.35%, a new 24-year high. With risk-free Treasuries offering more than 5% simply by holding them, who would still want to put money into high-volatility assets? On top of that, oil prices have risen above $110, pushing inflation expectations higher again. Cleveland Fed President Hammack turned hawkish this morning, saying that rates need to continue rising to bring inflation back down to 2%. As money becomes more expensive, risk-asset valuations have to be reassessed. BTC and the Nasdaq are now rising and falling together, so do not expect it to remain unscathed.

The altcoin market is where the real bloodbath is happening. BOME is down 30%, BLUR is down 29%, STRK is down 28%, and CKB is down 22%. BTC falls 3%, while altcoins fall 30%. Altcoins have higher leverage and thinner liquidity. When BTC sneezes, they go straight into the ICU. Funding rates have turned negative, indicating that longs are still being flushed out. Even if there is a short-term rebound, altcoins will most likely fail to keep pace.

This is not the time to buy the dip, but it is not the time to panic-sell either. If your positions are too large, use this V-shaped rebound to reduce leverage somewhat. Do not hold high leverage and wait for the next wick. If you want to buy spot, you can consider scaling in after BTC pulls back to around 81,500. Stay away from altcoins for now—especially those that have fallen more than 30%. That indicates the leverage inside them has not yet been fully cleared out, and trying to catch a falling knife will most likely leave you with a hand full of blood.

On the macro front, keep an eye on CPI and expectations for a December Fed rate hike. The probability of a December hike has now exceeded 80%. Until this uncertainty is resolved, the height of any rebound remains questionable. Staying alive is more important than making money. Wait for the wind to come.
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