#WCTCS9 #每周来晒 Global high interest rates persist worldwide, keeping crypto valuations under pressure and driving further divergence

With the US midterm elections approaching, if Trump's Republican Party loses the House while retaining the Senate, resulting in a divided Congress, Trump would become a "lame-duck president." His bills involving large-scale fiscal stimulus and industrial subsidies would struggle to pass. This would suppress global demand in the short term, but could reduce uncertainty over trade policy and ease tensions between Europe and the US in the medium term. For China, the barriers already in place, such as tariffs and chip controls, will not disappear. The probability of an all-out trade war will decline, but industries including photovoltaics and electric vehicles could still face targeted additional measures. Expectations for foreign trade and exports will become more stable, pressure on the yuan will ease slightly, and the broader logic of achieving self-reliance and controllability remains unchanged, with only the pace slowing. We should use this buffer period to focus on our own development.
The overall weakness of the crypto market in this cycle is essentially not a technical deterioration in price action, but a systemic valuation squeeze caused by the continued tightening of the global macroeconomic and US dollar liquidity cycles.
At present, the core logic of overseas macroeconomics is very clear: the US economy is more resilient than expected, inflation is declining slowly, market expectations for an early Federal Reserve rate cut continue to cool, long-term US Treasury yields remain volatile at high levels, the US Dollar Index has stabilized temporarily, and the overall global risk-free interest-rate center remains elevated. Capital markets have entered a typical economic environment of "high interest rates, weak easing, and low risk appetite."

From the perspective of capital pricing, crypto assets are high-beta, zero-cash-flow risk assets that are extremely sensitive to US dollar liquidity and interest-rate expectations. When US Treasury yields remain elevated, it means that the returns on and safety of global funds holding US dollar fixed-income assets are more certain and attractive. Long-term speculative capital and institutional allocation funds will actively reduce their risk exposure, directly causing the flow of incremental capital into crypto to remain interrupted. The market will remain locked in a stock-based competition for an extended period, lacking sustained valuation support for an upward trend. Before overseas economic data shows a clear weakening and inflation cools decisively, the suppressive logic of high interest rates will not fade quickly. This is also the core macroeconomic logic behind the major market's weak rebound and continued choppy bottoming process in this cycle.

Returning to the price structure, weekend market liquidity contracted as markets closed, and overall volatility was extremely limited. Bitcoin and Ether both maintained narrow technical consolidation trends.

Bitcoin's overall structure currently shows signs of bearish momentum exhaustion and passive valuation stabilization. The risk of the previous systemic correction has been fully released, support from positions accumulated in the lower range has gradually solidified, and prices are currently relying on key support areas to complete a stabilization and recovery process. However, constrained by weak macro liquidity, the market has been unable to stage a high-volume counterattack. All recovery has been merely a technical rebound following oversold conditions, with clear resistance overhead. A trend reversal is not yet in place on the larger time frame. Overall, the market is in a stage of choppy accumulation following the materialization of macro sentiment, with significantly stronger resilience than sector-specific tokens.

Ether's structural weakness in this cycle fully aligns with the macro logic for growth sectors. Compared with Bitcoin's store-of-value attributes, Ether is more of a growth- and application-expectations-driven asset, making it more sensitive to shrinking liquidity and declining risk appetite. As global risk aversion rises and valuations of risk assets broadly contract, Ether continues to weaken and repeatedly test lower support levels. The moving-average system remains fully bearish, rebound sustainability is extremely poor, and price action shows a typical weak bottoming structure amid liquidity scarcity. This has created a clear divergence in strength versus Bitcoin and fully matches the current macroeconomic pressure on growth assets.

Overall, the current crypto market is entirely dominated by the macro cycle, with technical factors serving only as feedback on sentiment and timing. There was no meaningful market movement over the weekend; price action merely digested and absorbed the recent macroeconomic negative factors. The next genuine directional turning point will still require US inflation and employment data to be released, market expectations for rate cuts to be repriced, and US Treasury yields to enter a sustained downward trend. Only then will the market see a new window for systemic valuation recovery.