#CRCLLeadsCryptoStocks
Saturday night prep ☕ US stocks are closed until Monday, so this is the perfect time to look at Friday’s tape without the noise. Crypto stocks bounced hard, and instead of cheering, I’m filling in my Monday prep sheet: what I know, what I don’t, and what I’ll do for each outcome.

What I know (verified numbers)

Circle closed Friday at $84.51, up about 4.5%. Coinbase rose about 5.5% and Strategy about 1.9%
Mizuho moved its Circle target to $100, which is about 18% above Friday’s close
The day before, Circle had fallen about 4.6% to the low $80s, so the Friday bounce brought it back to roughly where it was before the drop. Two days, a big round trip, almost no net move
Strategy closed at $154.34 after touching $170.17 on Oct 2. From that high it’s still about 9% lower, and Oct 7 did most of the damage

The number that explains the whole sector

Strategy fell about 11% from its Oct 2 high to its Oct 8 close, while BTC fell roughly 5% from its 87K area to the low 83K area. So it fell about twice as hard as BTC. That’s the nature of a leveraged BTC proxy: it moves with BTC, but with a megaphone attached, both ways. Its beta is quoted at around 3.5.

Also worth knowing

Strategy bought 334 BTC for about $28.7M in early October at an average of about $85,839. With BTC around 83K now, that purchase is roughly 3% under water, a paper loss of about $0.9M. That’s small, but it shows these buyers pay up at highs and then sit through the pullbacks. Their next earnings come on Oct 29, one day after the Fed decision.

What I don’t know

Whether Friday’s bounce was a real shift or a relief rally after Thursday’s selling
What happens when the market opens on Monday, and whether any weekend news changes the mood
How Circle behaves on a chart, because I only have two verified days of prices, so I won’t pretend to have levels I haven’t seen

Circle in plain words

It earns interest on the reserves behind its stablecoin, so its income is tied to interest rates. With the Fed in a hiking cycle, high rates are a tailwind for the income side, while the risk is a market that gets nervous about growth or about rates falling later. That’s why this stock can rally on crypto strength and still be sensitive to the macro calendar.

The macro calendar for next week

Oct 14: CPI
Oct 15: PPI
Oct 28: the Fed decision
Oct 29: Strategy earnings
A hot CPI can hit high-beta names hardest, and crypto stocks sit right in that group.

My Monday plan (my own view, not advice)

MSTR (levels from Friday’s range, Oct 8 close and the October highs):

Pullback long: 151.5 to 150.5
Stop loss: close below 147
TP1: 158.1 (Friday’s high), roughly 1.8R
TP2: 168.7, roughly 4.4R (near the Oct 6 high), TP3: 170.2
Breakout version: a close above 158.1 that holds, then 168.7
If 147 breaks: I step aside and don’t catch it
BTC filter: if BTC loses about 80.3K, I expect MSTR’s 147 to break too, so I’d skip the long

CRCL

Pullback long: 81.0 to 80.3 (where it bottomed this week)
Stop loss: close below 78.5
TP1: 84.5 (Friday’s close), roughly 1.7R
A 100 analyst target is a destination, not a plan

Stocks gap at the open, and a gap can jump over a stop, so I use smaller size than I do on crypto, and I don’t hold a full position into big data days.

My Monday rules

No trade in the first 15 minutes of the open, the gap settles first
Orders sit at levels, stops placed before entry
If neither level triggers, I do nothing, and doing nothing is a position

My check-in
Calm, light positions, spot untouched, cash kept aside on purpose. A bounce isn’t a trend until it holds on a closed candle.

Verdict: a strong Friday, an unproven week. Which one are you watching on Monday, the stablecoin issuer or the BTC proxy?

$CRCL

‌$MSTR

‌$BTC

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