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Ethereum is back near the $2,600 area, with ETH trading around $2,610–$2,620 as the market absorbs another wave of selling pressure. The move is important because ETH is now approaching a zone where buyers previously showed interest, while the broader market is also waiting for fresh information from the Federal Reserve.

The ETF picture has become noticeably weaker in the short term. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs recorded approximately $50.8M in net outflows on October 5, according to Farside data, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for roughly $31.9M and Fidelity's FETH around $18.9M. That was part of a broader sequence of ETF outflows, showing that institutional demand has cooled after a stronger period of accumulation.

But I would not interpret this as institutions abandoning Ethereum. Cumulative spot ETH ETF net inflows remain around $13.58B, which is still a substantial amount of capital that has entered these products since launch. The more accurate interpretation is that the pace of new institutional demand has slowed, and ETH now needs to prove that buyers outside the ETF channel are strong enough to absorb the supply coming into the market.

That is why the $2,600 region is so important today. If ETH can hold roughly $2,580–$2,620 and begin recovering, the current decline could still develop into a consolidation rather than a larger structural breakdown. A move back above $2,650 would be the first sign that buyers are starting to regain control, while a sustained reclaim of $2,700 would be much more significant because it would recover an important area of recent price structure.

If ETH can establish acceptance above $2,700–$2,725, I would then watch $2,750–$2,800, followed by the $2,850–$2,900 region if momentum continues. I would not treat those levels as guaranteed targets, though. The market needs volume and follow-through; a quick wick above resistance would not be enough to confirm a real breakout.

The risk is on the other side. If ETH loses $2,580 decisively and fails to reclaim it, the next area I would watch is approximately $2,520–$2,550. A sustained break below that zone would weaken the short-term structure further and could bring $2,450–$2,500 into focus. That is why I would rather react to the confirmation than try to guess where the exact bottom will form.

The macro side could make today's session even more volatile. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to release the minutes from its September 15–16 FOMC meeting today at 2:00 p.m. ET. This is not a new interest-rate decision; it is the detailed record of the previous meeting, so traders will be looking for clues about how policymakers view inflation, employment and the future path of monetary policy.

For ETH, the interpretation of those minutes could matter more than the headline itself. If the market reads the minutes as less restrictive than feared, pressure on yields and the dollar could ease and give risk assets some breathing room. If the tone is more hawkish, liquidity expectations could tighten again and put additional pressure on crypto. I would also be careful with the first move after the release because macro headlines often create a fast liquidity sweep before the market chooses its actual direction.

There is still a bigger Ethereum story underneath the short-term weakness. Ethereum remains deeply connected to stablecoins, DeFi, tokenized assets and institutional blockchain infrastructure, while the spot ETF market has already created a major new channel for traditional investors to gain ETH exposure. Those fundamentals do not disappear because ETF flows turn negative for several sessions, but they also do not guarantee that price cannot fall further.

That is the balance I am watching right now. ETF demand has cooled, macro uncertainty is increasing into the FOMC minutes, and ETH is testing an important technical area around $2,600. At the same time, cumulative ETF flows remain strongly positive and Ethereum's broader network thesis remains intact.

For me, the next move depends on the reaction around $2,580–$2,620. If buyers defend that zone, reclaim $2,650 and eventually push through $2,700, the structure can start improving again toward $2,750–$2,800 and potentially $2,850–$2,900. If $2,580 breaks and sellers maintain control, I would rather respect $2,520–$2,550 and then $2,450–$2,500 as the next downside areas.

So I am not calling ETH simply bullish or bearish here. I am watching how price reacts to support while ETF flows and macro conditions are changing at the same time.

$2,600 is the battle zone.

If buyers defend it, ETH has a path toward recovery.

If sellers break it, the market may need to search for a lower base.

Today's FOMC minutes could be the catalyst that decides which side gets the next major move.

$ETH