$BTC

‌$ETH

‌#每周来晒 #布局本周交易 My Weekly Trading Plan: Trade the Structure, Not the Noise

At the start of this week, I am not treating the market as a simple “buy everything” setup. BTC is around $85,700 and ETH around $2,700, while the broader crypto market remains constructive but selective. Global liquidity is still rotating cautiously, and BTC dominance remains elevated, which tells me capital is concentrating in larger assets rather than aggressively chasing smaller altcoins.

My positioning: moderately bullish, but not fully risk-on

BTC remains the stronger core position, while ETH is showing a more selective setup. That difference matters: I would rather build exposure around BTC first and wait for confirmation before increasing higher-beta positions. The market is improving, but elevated BTC dominance still points to selective risk-on conditions rather than broad altcoin euphoria.

My preferred allocation for this week is approximately 45% BTC, 20% ETH, 10% selected high-relative-strength altcoins, 10% tokenized technology exposure and 15% cash/stablecoin reserve. I do not want to deploy the entire portfolio at once. The reserve is part of the strategy because a failed breakout can create better entries than chasing the first green candle.

BTC plan: $85,700 is the decision area

For BTC, I see $85,000–$85,500 as the first important support zone, with $86,000–$86,500 as the immediate recovery area. Holding above $85,000 keeps the broader structure constructive. The major near-term resistance remains $87,000–$87,500.

My plan is to add gradually around $85,300–$85,800 if support holds, increase exposure after a confirmed break and hold above $87,500, and take partial profit around $89,500–$90,000. A stronger continuation could open $92,000 as the next target. If BTC loses $85,000 decisively, I would reduce exposure rather than average down blindly.

ETH plan: $2,700 needs confirmation

ETH is currently around $2,700, with the market still testing whether this area can become a stable base. I see $2,650–$2,680 as the first important support zone, while $2,740–$2,775 remains the key resistance cluster.

I would look for entries around $2,680–$2,710, with invalidation below $2,650. A clean break and hold above $2,775 would improve the setup and could target $2,900 first and $3,000 next. Until that breakout happens, I prefer ETH as a controlled swing position rather than chasing it aggressively.

Where I see the better altcoin opportunity

The strongest sector signal I am watching remains AI-related crypto. Recent strength in AI-linked assets has significantly outperformed the broader market, with names such as NEAR, VVV, WLD and TAO showing strong momentum.

That strength makes AI tokens interesting, but it also makes chasing them dangerous. After large moves, I want pullbacks, volume confirmation and BTC stability before increasing exposure. My rule is simple: relative strength earns a place on the watchlist; confirmation earns the trade.

Tokenized stocks: the alternative rotation signal

I am also watching tokenized U.S. technology exposure, especially NVDA, because the AI narrative is attracting capital across both traditional equities and crypto. NVIDIA recently traded around the $234–$238 region after reaching a record intraday high near $237.88.

For me, $234–$238 remains the immediate breakout zone. A sustained move above $238 would strengthen the momentum case, while losing roughly $228–$230 would make me more defensive. The bigger signal is capital rotation: if BTC stalls below $87,500 while AI equities continue breaking higher, I would rather rotate part of new capital toward confirmed AI strength than force an altcoin trade.

The tokenization trend is also becoming more important because on-chain access to traditional securities is gradually expanding. That gives investors another way to express the AI and technology theme without taking the same risk profile as smaller crypto assets.

My risk framework

I will risk no more than 1% of total capital on a single trade, avoid high leverage, and keep at least 15% in cash/stablecoins. I will not add to a losing position simply because the asset looks cheaper. Position size comes after defining the invalidation level not before it.

My recent trading lesson has been simple: a small controlled profit is better than a large emotional position. My focus now is entry discipline, predefined exits and protecting capital when the market stops confirming my thesis.

The biggest catalyst this week

The immediate macro focus remains Federal Reserve policy expectations, U.S. economic data, Treasury yields and inflation expectations. The recent weaker labor-market picture has supported expectations for easier policy, helping both BTC and technology stocks recover, but elevated yields and oil prices remain potential sources of volatility.

So my bullish trigger is BTC above $87,500 with follow-through, ETH above $2,775, stable or falling BTC dominance and expanding altcoin volume. My defensive trigger is BTC below $85,000, ETH below $2,650, rising yields and weakening spot demand.

My weekly thesis

I am buying strength on confirmation, not candles on emotion. BTC remains my core position, ETH is my second major allocation, AI-related assets are my higher-risk opportunity, and tokenized technology exposure gives me another way to participate in the AI/liquidity theme.

I will take partial profits into $90,000 BTC, $3,000 ETH and confirmed AI/technology extensions, while keeping cash ready for pullbacks.

If BTC cannot reclaim $87,500 or the macro environment deteriorates, I will simply wait. For me, the best trade this week is not the trade I predict correctly it is the trade where my entry, invalidation, position size and exit are all defined before I enter.
@Gate_Square