September's U.S. jobs report came in well below expectations. The economy added just 29,000 jobs last month, compared with forecasts of around 90,000 and a revised gain of 133,000 in August. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, slightly above consensus. Average hourly earnings increased 0.1% month over month, below the 0.3% forecast, and annual wage growth came in at 3.0% against expectations of 3.2%. It was the weakest payrolls reading of the post-pandemic period, and it arrived alongside 30-year Treasury yields near 5.6%, oil above $100, and a Federal Reserve that raised rates on September 16.

The rate market responded quickly. According to CME's FedWatch tool, the probability of a hike at the October meeting fell to around 14% from roughly 34% a day earlier. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is most sensitive to policy expectations, dropped 10 basis points to 4.787%. The bond market now treats a pause in October as the more likely outcome, and attention has shifted to the inflation data that will arrive before the next FOMC meeting.

One detail worth noting is the difference between the two surveys in the report. The establishment survey, which measures payrolls, showed weak hiring. The household survey, which measures employment through a separate method, showed that more people entered the labor force, which is why the unemployment rate only edged higher. State Street analysts have pointed out that the two surveys are sending somewhat different signals. J.P. Morgan still expects one more hike in December, but it does not view the current data as the start of a sustained tightening cycle. The picture is not clear enough to say the tightening is over, but it is weak enough to take October off the table for many market participants.

Risk assets moved higher after the release. Bitcoin rose from around $86,450 to $87,230 within minutes, a gain of about 3.48% on the day. Gold moved from $4,178 to $4,227 an ounce. U.S. equity futures also advanced, with Dow futures up more than 400 points. The logic behind the move is familiar: softer labor data reduces the case for further rate increases, which pushes Treasury yields and the dollar lower, which in turn lowers the opportunity cost of holding assets that do not pay a yield. That said, the same elevated yields and inflation concerns that have weighed on markets all month are still present, and they continue to cap the upside.

Positioning before the release helps explain the size of the move. In the hour before the data, $32.51 million in crypto positions were liquidated, with $27.53 million of that coming from short positions. Bitcoin alone accounted for $20.5 million of those liquidations. The market had been positioned for a stronger number, and the actual result ran against that positioning. Moves of this kind are often amplified by leverage, and this one was no exception.

Citi's updated forecasts, published earlier in the week, now look better aligned with the data. The bank raised its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 and lifted its Ether forecast to $3,028 from $2,240. Citi cited renewed ETF inflows, Treasury buybacks, SEC rulemaking, and a softer dollar as the main factors. It also noted that advisors and brokers are gradually increasing allocations, with roughly $5 billion in ETF inflows expected over the next 12 months. A weaker labor market supports that view by reducing the yield advantage of holding cash.

ETF flows reflect the same shift. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to net inflows on the first trading day of October, attracting $102.7 million after Wednesday's $148.7 million outflow. BlackRock's IBIT led with $196 million in inflows. The reversal suggests the institutional bid remains present after a brief pause, though single-day flows are not a reliable guide to longer-term demand.

On the technical side, Bitcoin is trading near a resistance zone that has held for several weeks. The $86,908 level is the first hurdle, with the $87,300 to $87,400 area marking the September highs. A sustained break above that range would open the way toward $88,500. On the downside, the immediate support cluster is around $82,860, with stronger support near $81,602. Some analysts have identified $82,000 as a key level for October, with a broader range of $78,000 to $95,000 if the month follows its historical seasonal pattern. The $85,000 to $85,600 zone remains the nearest area to watch on any rally attempt.

Ethereum and the broader altcoin market are facing the same conditions. Ether is trading around $2,722, up 0.29% on the day, still within a range that has held since mid-September. CoinShares analysts have noted that hawkish monetary policy and the delay in CLARITY Act regulatory clarity are limiting a major breakout, and that pressure is likely to remain concentrated in altcoins. The $2,740 level is the near-term resistance; a break above it would suggest the range is resolving upward, while a failure keeps ETH below $2,700. The ISM PMI reading of 54.5 also matters because it extends the nine-month expansion and adds another data point to the Fed's rate deliberations.

The risks to this setup have not changed. The 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5.2%, and the 30-year sits near 5.6%, both at multi-decade highs. Federal borrowing needs are approaching $39 trillion, which keeps upward pressure on long-end yields and tightens liquidity conditions. If inflation data in the coming weeks comes in above expectations, the Fed could still hike in December despite the weak jobs number, which would reverse the recent repricing and weigh on risk assets. The December FOMC meeting remains the largest single source of uncertainty for the rest of the year.

To summarize, the labor market has provided the first clear evidence this cycle that tighter policy is affecting hiring, and the market has responded by lowering the probability of an October hike. For crypto, that reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets and gives ETF inflows a more supportive backdrop. It does not, however, resolve the inflation side of the Fed's mandate, and long-end yields remain elevated. Bitcoin's ability to clear $87,400 and hold above $85,000 will indicate whether this is the beginning of a more durable move or another attempt within the same range.

This article is not investment advice. Analysis is based on publicly available information and does not guarantee future outcomes.

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