#CorePCEandGDPFinalReading $XAUT $BTC $ETH $US500

PCE Cooled, GDP Beat, Bitcoin Already Faded the Pop. Payrolls Decide Next

The number everyone was waiting for is already out, and what interests me more is how the market handled it. Core PCE printed +0.2% MoM against 0.3% expected and 3.0% YoY against 3.3% expected. Headline PCE came in at 3.4% YoY versus the 3.7% consensus. On paper that is a clean inflation miss. But final Q2 GDP was revised up to 2.2% from 1.5%, consumption went to 3.8% from 3.4%, and August spending rose 0.9% on the month. Cooler prices with a consumer that refuses to slow down is not the mix that ends a hiking debate. My read is that higher for longer survives, and only the timing of the next hike has slipped from October toward December.

Bitcoin told the same story. It jumped above 85,500 right after the release, then dropped below 83,500 within about ninety minutes. Now it has run all the way back. On the hourly, BTC sits at 86,429.7 after rejecting 86,688.9, with RSI at 74.87 and the 14/21/35 averages at 85,063.5, 84,688.1 and 84,301.7. That puts price roughly 1,740 points above the 21 average heading into a binary event. ETH is calmer at 2,729.39, RSI 61.26, stalling just under 2,734.27 and holding above its average cluster at 2,698.79 to 2,708.58.

Outside crypto, equities are not confirming it. US500 is at 7,691.85, boxed between 7,636.49 and 7,718.45 with RSI at 57.51 and flat averages around 7,672. Gold at 4,188.0 is pushing 4,191.6 after the September 28 flush, but it is still below its 200 average at 4,221.7.

The real catalyst is September nonfarm payrolls at 12:30 UTC today. Consensus sits around 84K to 90K with unemployment at 4.1%, after August's 162K. A big beat would revive hike pricing quickly.

My bias on BTC is bullish while hourly closes hold above 84,688.1. I am not chasing 86,400. I would look to buy a pullback into 85,063.5, with invalidation on an hourly close below 84,301.7. First target is 86,688.9 and second is 87,000. If payrolls run hot and 84,301.7 breaks, I step aside and wait for 83,218.1 before thinking about longs again.

Do you read this PCE miss as the start of a real disinflation trend, or just one soft month before payrolls and Q3 data push the Fed back toward hikes?

Not financial advice. Always do your own research before making any trading or investment decision.