Let me talk about my personal view again

The day before yesterday, I said I would short ETH. 2550 and 2580 were both levels to short at, and the decline came as expected, with the low reaching 2360. There should still be room to fall, but it would be best to reduce the position, because the market has been extremely choppy recently. Even when it is set to fall, the move has not been decisive. In this kind of market, it is best to leave some room for T trades.

After tonight, the interest rate decision will come in the early hours. The result will be either how much rates are raised or no rate hike, although a rate cut, whose probability is very low, cannot be ruled out. For this kind of data-driven market move, it is enough to stay out of the market beforehand—do not gamble on it.

The uncertainty around the rate hike is this: if a 25-basis-point hike is implemented, it will definitely fall first and then rise, with a downward wick, before returning to oscillate within the current range. If rates are raised more, there will be a sharp drop. If there is no hike, the subsequent rebound will be relatively strong.

I said before that this major rally needs a pullback to qualify as a proper bull market. 75000 is clearly not enough; 73000 or lower, in my view, would be the ideal pullback. But bottom-fishing is not the right approach—we can only assess the situation as it develops. As long as the market moves downward in a pullback and then returns to the current range, it can be confirmed that this is a bull market, and there is no need to waver anymore. If it falls back below 70k, we can no longer fantasize about a bull market.

My personal view still leans toward a bull market, because a divergence on the weekly timeframe means that a 20,000-point rise is not much, and the accumulation at the bottom during the earlier stage of this move lasted long enough. There is still plenty of room above.