#每周来晒

‍#美联储加息会议

#Gate广场中秋团圆局
In less than 12 hours, this month's most closely watched financial drama, “Will the Fed Hike or Not?”, will come to an end. The market is currently pricing in an extremely hawkish outcome: CME FedWatch data shows that the market expects the probability of a 25 BP rate hike at this meeting to be close to 90%. The unexpectedly strong August U.S. CPI data—3.4% year-on-year and core CPI up 0.3% month-on-month—has completely fueled rate-hike fears, but Little God of Wealth believes a hike tonight is not a foregone conclusion and that there may still be variables:

What will determine “Hike” or “No Hike”?

The market is currently fully anchored to stronger inflation data while ignoring the Fed's dual mandate: stable inflation and employment recovery. The Fed has also historically preferred to “wait and observe with a lag, and act cautiously,” rather than blindly pivot in response to a single month's inflation data.

1. Inflation is a structural rebound, not a trend rebound

The August CPI data appears unexpectedly strong, but a breakdown shows no sustained inflationary pressure. This rebound was mainly driven by fluctuations in oil prices and short-term service prices, representing a periodic, pulse-like increase rather than a broad-based resurgence in inflation caused by an overheating economy.

The key components of core inflationary pressure—housing and used cars—have continued to cool, and the medium- to long-term downward trend in inflation has not been reversed. The Fed focuses on inflation trends over 3-6 months when formulating policy, rather than on single-month data. A one-month rebound is not enough to overturn the previous logic of a rate-cutting cycle. The Fed will most likely choose to “wait and verify” to avoid excessive tightening that could stifle the economy.

2. Concerns over a U.S. economic downturn are becoming more pronounced, and an early rate hike carries the risk of a hard landing

The U.S. economy is currently showing a clear “data divergence”: inflation has rebounded slightly, but real-economy momentum continues to weaken. The benefits of fiscal stimulus in the first half of the year are gradually fading, financial conditions remain tight, corporate financing costs are high, consumption and manufacturing are weakening at the margin, and signs of cooling in the labor market continue to emerge.

If the Fed forcibly raises rates by 25 BP against a backdrop of economic weakness, it will further suppress real-economy financing, intensify pressure on corporate earnings, and sharply increase the risk of a hard landing. For the Fed, the priority of maintaining growth is rising, and there is no need to sacrifice economic resilience for a short-term inflation pulse.

How will the market move after tonight?

Scenario One: A 25 BP hike as expected (the market baseline expectation, 90% probability)

This is the outcome the market has fully priced in. The core logic is that the negative news will be realized and fully absorbed, with no unexpected shock.

1. Cryptocurrency market outlook

In the short term, the market may remain under slight pressure and continue to consolidate near its lows before the decision. The moment the hike is announced, there may be a short, rapid sell-off—the “final drop”—but the decline will be extremely limited.

Medium- to long-term outlook: Since 90% of expectations have already been priced in, the negative impact will be fully cleared once the hike is announced, and the crypto market will enter a recovery rebound. As sentiment toward risk assets improves, BTC and ETH will end their recent choppy downtrend and begin a range-bound recovery. Crypto concept stocks in sectors such as AI and storage will show greater elasticity, outperforming major coins in the rebound.

Core logic: The main driver of this round of adjustment in the crypto market has been rising rate-hike expectations. Once those expectations are realized, the biggest macroeconomic negative factor suppressing the market will disappear, and funds will quickly flow back into risk assets.

2. U.S. stock market outlook

The market will digest the negative news through short-term consolidation, while technology stocks and semiconductor shares come under slight pressure. After the decision, the market will focus on whether the rate hike is a one-off action. If Powell strikes a dovish tone and emphasizes a “single rate hike followed by observation,” the three major U.S. stock indexes will rebound quickly, while high-growth names such as AI semiconductors and memory chips—SK Hynix, SanDisk, and NVIDIA—will see a recovery.

If he strikes a hawkish tone and signals continued rate hikes, U.S. stocks will continue to trade weakly in a range, with growth stocks remaining under pressure. However, given the current economic fundamentals, Powell will most likely signal cautious observation, meaning the negative impact is unlikely to persist strongly.

Scenario Two: Rates remain unchanged (a reverse black swan, 10% probability, an upside surprise)

This is an unexpected outcome that the market has not fully priced in. It would represent a major positive catalyst and completely reverse the market's current bearish sentiment.

1. Cryptocurrency market outlook

The market would see a powerful, pulse-like surge, directly breaking out of its recent trading range and beginning a period of rebound.

Major coins BTC and ETH would rise rapidly and stabilize above their short-term resistance levels. Sector coins would erupt across the board, with AI computing power and crypto storage sectors leading the market in gains. Funds previously suppressed by rate-hike expectations would flow back in concentrated fashion, sentiment would shift from panic to euphoria, and short-term profit opportunities would broadly recover.

Over the medium to long term, no rate hike would completely reverse expectations for macro liquidity and confirm that the window for accommodative monetary policy has not yet closed, providing ample liquidity support for structural opportunities in the crypto market during the fourth quarter.

2. U.S. stock market outlook

U.S. stocks would enter a one-way rebound, led by growth stocks. AI semiconductors, memory chips, and leading technology companies would surge, while SK Hynix (South Korean stocks), SanDisk, and U.S. technology stocks that previously pulled back on rate-hike expectations would begin an earnings recovery.

At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index would fall rapidly and Treasury yields would decline, further benefiting risk-asset valuation expansion. The short-term correction in U.S. stocks would end, and the market would return to a choppy upward trend.

Little God of Wealth has just one core message: Do not blindly chase shorts

When the whole world expects a rate hike tonight and the negative news is about to arrive, watching Bitcoin fall to 75K, aren't you panicking badly? But Little God of Wealth wants to say: Never follow the crowd blindly or simply echo popular opinion. The market has already priced in part of the negative news, and even if rates are raised tonight, the downside will be very limited. So, take your finger off the short button tonight!