#CLARITY法案关键投票在即 #Gate广场中秋团圆局

: Market pricing—Is Kalshi's 25% probability too pessimistic?

The market's current pricing of the CLARITY Act shows a clear divergence, which is exactly the signal traders need to watch.

The probability on Kalshi that the bill will become law in 2026 fell to 25% on September 13, well below the 82% recorded in February 2025. On Polymarket, the probability of it “being signed into law this year” was even lower at 18%, with cumulative trading volume of approximately $17.26 million.

Interestingly, Bernstein noted in a September 14 research report that the bill's passage probability on Kalshi had recovered to above 30%, arguing that the market had broadly assumed CLARITY would fail, and that bet could now face a reversal.

The timing gap between the two sets of data is crucial—the 25% on Kalshi was the figure for September 13, while the above-30% figure was updated on September 14, immediately after Republicans released the final text. This shows that the market is reassessing.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in a CNBC interview that he was quite optimistic about securing 60 votes, saying negotiations had met most of both sides' demands. Bernstein gave Circle a $140 price target, Coinbase a $330 price target, and Robinhood a $160 price target, assigning all three an Outperform rating.

Bitcoin is currently trading at approximately $77,662, up slightly by 1.02% over 24 hours but still down 3.59% over the past 7 days. Overall market sentiment is neutral, with near-term uncertainty surrounding the legislative process pulling against the price recovery.

My view is that if the vote passes, the market could see a “sell the rumor, buy the news” style rally, because the passage probability had previously been pushed too low; if it fails, the short-term volatility could instead create a buying opportunity. The key is to plan in advance how to respond under both scenarios.