#Gate广场中秋团圆局 #CLARITY法案关键投票在即 Key variable in the crypto market this week: The CLARITY Act is about to be voted on and may have a more far-reaching impact than rate cuts

September 15 may be even more important than a rate cut. If the United States sends the CLARITY Act to the Senate and it passes, the boundaries of the global crypto industry and even Wall Street finance could be ripped open.

SEC Chairman Atkins stated personally that the CLARITY Act will be put to a vote in the Senate on September 15. At the same time, the bill does something crucial: It divides assets into three categories—securities, digital commodities, and stablecoins. The SEC oversees securities, while the CFTC oversees commodities. BTC and ETH are classified as commodities. Over the past ten years, the crypto industry has feared the ambiguity of “who exactly is in charge.”

Now, this situation is finally starting to have some answers. The compliance channels for institutions that previously stood by and dared not act—pension funds and sovereign wealth funds—will be opened directly, meaning capital flows will begin to move. Practices like the misuse of funds seen in FTX’s case will be forcibly isolated and eliminated.

Yield-bearing stablecoins may also gradually be curtailed, leaving only limited avenues for activity-based rewards.

The second impact is that it will also have a major effect on the traditional financial industry itself. The United States is accustomed to doing this and will certainly use this framework as the global default standard. At that point, dollar-backed stablecoins will be incorporated into the federal framework, meaning the dominance of the digital dollar will be reinforced once again. Singapore, the United States, Hong Kong, and even the EU’s MiCA will be forced to follow suit. A large share of offshore exchange activity will very likely be absorbed back into the United States.

The third possibility is that, as in the past, it still fails to pass. This probability exists. Polymarket, currently the world’s largest prediction market, shows only a 16% chance of passage. If it fails, the industry will return to enforcement replacing legislation. BTC could still return to around 6 in the short term, or it could fall to 5.

So be sure to note this: As BTC falls, the entire altcoin and shitcoin market will inevitably drop 15% to 30%.

There are three very firm recommendations on this.

First, when considering the outcome on September 15, do not get carried away. Even if it passes, the implementation process will still take 18 to 24 months.

Second, divide your holdings into two groups. For example, we should hold commodity-class assets such as BTC and ETH. For immature chains and those smaller coins, we must start considering reducing our positions.

Third, do not look only at the yield on stablecoins. Also examine whether the issuer truly has sufficient 1:1 asset reserves, including whether it can be connected to the federal government—especially the United States—through some of its licenses. This is a core consideration.

The conclusion is: If it passes this time, the biggest development will be that the United States truly becomes the crypto capital of the world. Everything related to globalization may have to be repriced. $BTC