9.15 Market Analysis:

Key focus: A day with dual catalysts — the CLARITY procedural vote + the FOMC meeting opening. The market has partially priced in a “25 bp rate hike.” What is truly being priced in today is whether the bill can clear the 60-vote threshold, as well as how hawkish or dovish tomorrow’s decision statement and dot plot will be.
I. Market Snapshot
On Monday, crypto briefly diverged from tech stocks: Nasdaq futures weakened amid discussions of a slowdown in AI, while crude oil surged due to disruptions involving Saudi pipelines. Bitcoin rebounded from approximately 76,800 dollars, reached an intraday high of approximately 79,400–79,500 dollars, and traded near 78,100–78,200 dollars around the close. Ethereum rebounded from approximately 2,476 dollars, reached a high of approximately 2,612 dollars, and closed at approximately 2,510–2,520 dollars. Total crypto market capitalization recovered to approximately 2.77–2.79 trillion dollars.
Current prices are roughly: BTC near 77,800, ETH near 2,500. Payment-related assets such as XRP and XLM led gains, with the PayFi sector up approximately 5.5% over 24 hours. This looks more like a “legislative expectations trade” than a broad recovery in risk appetite.
II. Key News
1. Main focus today: Senate CLARITY procedural vote, around 14:15 ET

This is not final passage. It is a cloture vote, requiring 60 votes, on the motion to proceed to consideration of H.R. 3633. Republicans hold approximately 53 seats, so even with unanimous Republican support, at least approximately 7 Democratic or independent lawmakers would still need to support it across party lines. Only after passage would the bill proceed to formal consideration, substitute amendments, and subsequent passage votes. The House would also need to pass the same text. Failure would likely put the bill on hold until year-end or even after the midterm elections.

Trump has accepted most of the ethics provisions, which is the political prerequisite for the vote to truly “come back to life.” Prediction markets still place the probability of enactment this year at only approximately 30%–32%, while some Wall Street institutions estimate the probability of passage this year at approximately 25%–40%. SEC Chair Atkins has expressed support for the bill, while emphasizing that even if it fails, regulators will continue advancing rules on their own. Lobbying by the banking system over stablecoin reward provisions is also intensifying.

Market implications: Passage = higher sentiment and regulatory premiums, but it does not mean legislation will be completed immediately; failure = a short-term retracement of the legislative premium, while the SEC and CFTC could still advance the matter separately over the medium term. Wall Street’s entry logic may not be disrupted by a single procedural failure.
2. Macro: The rate hike itself is already priced in; the statement is the turning point

The FOMC will meet on September 15–16, with the rate decision expected to be announced at 14:00 ET on the 16th, followed by the chair’s press conference. After August core CPI rose 0.3% month over month, above expectations, the probability of a 25 bp rate hike is approximately 81.5%–90%. Institutions such as QCP believe that whether rates are raised has already been nearly fully priced in, with attention shifting to the dot plot, language regarding the neutral rate, and whether the Fed will signal further rate hikes later this year. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has already risen above 5%, while oil prices are approaching above 100 dollars, limiting room for a dovish stance.

September 15 is also the U.S. quarterly tax payment date, which could temporarily drain bank reserves. Combined with rate hike expectations, this creates additional liquidity friction for risk assets.
3. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of approximately 463 million dollars from September 8–11, ending a roughly three-week period of inflows totaling nearly 3.8 billion dollars. Outflows had already narrowed significantly by Friday. ETH ETFs, meanwhile, saw approximately 216 million dollars in single-day inflows, indicating some rotation of capital.
III. Bitcoin Market Analysis
After reaching a rebound high of approximately 82,000 dollars in August, BTC entered a 76,000–80,000 dollar range. On Monday, it rebounded from the lower end of the range and touched the 79,400 area, indicating that buying demand remains at 76,000–76,500, while 80,000–81,700 remains the trend confirmation zone.
Near-term support
76,000–76,500
Lower end of the range; a break below points to 75,000
Midrange
78,000–78,500
Near-term resistance
79,500–80,000
Monday’s high zone
Trend resistance
81,700–82,000
Only a breakout would indicate structural strengthening
Ethereum
ETH surged to approximately 2,663 dollars on September 11. After pulling back, it consolidated in the 2,460–2,530 range before moving back above 2,500 on Monday and touching 2,612. Compared with BTC, ETH is more sensitive to legislative developments and ETF rotation, but 2,550–2,670 remains a clear supply zone.
Strong support
2,430–2,460
Pullback buying zone
Near-term resistance
2,550–2,560
Threshold for a confirmed breakout
Upside target
2,650–2,700
September 15 is the most typical “policy day” for crypto so far this year: on one side is the 60-vote threshold for U.S. market structure legislation, and on the other is the eve of a rate decision that has already been heavily priced in. The move from 76,700 back above 79,000 shows that bears are reluctant to become excessively crowded ahead of the events, but 80,000 and 2,550 have still not been decisively reclaimed, so the structure remains range-bound rather than a breakout. The cleaner trading signal will not come at today’s open, but after two events: whether cloture secures 60 votes, and whether tomorrow’s FOMC statement describes the rate hike as a “one-time adjustment” or the “restart of a tightening cycle.” Until then, maintaining core positions, reducing leverage, and managing risk within the range remain the best approaches.