#FOMCMeetingAnalysis #ShareWeekly

Three Divergences in Fed Week: Stocks Weak, Oil Strong, BTC Resilient

The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on September 16 at 18:00 UTC. August inflation held steady at 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly increase. The market is pricing an 87% chance of a 25 basis point hike. The debate is no longer about the hike itself, but whether the dot plot will show one more hike for 2026.

Current price action tells three different stories.

Equities: 91.57 Level

NDAQ is trading at 91.57, up 0.47% on the day. Intraday high 92.40, low 90.95, previous close 91.14.

The technical structure is broken. MA5 at 92.61, MA10 at 94.89, MA30 at 95.88. Price is below all three moving averages. The rally that started from the 76.31 bottom ended at the 100.62 top with a TD Sequential 9 and selling began. MACD -1.03, DIF -0.44, DEA 0.58 in bearish territory. Market cap is 51.18 billion dollars, P/E 26.53. Valuation is struggling to sustain a higher-for-longer environment.

Oil: WTI at 101.99 Level

WTI is at 101.99, up 1.68%. Intraday high 105.10, low 100.72, open 101.94, previous close 100.30.

The picture is the opposite. MA5 99.59, MA10 95.72, MA30 87.05. Price is above all averages. The recovery from 67.54 has produced a 51% gain. Previous top was 109.54. MACD 1.38, DIF 4.69, DEA 3.31 in strong buy territory.

The main driver of the 0.4% monthly CPI was fuel prices. As long as crude stays above 100 dollars, the Fed does not have room to pause.

Crypto: BTC at 79,184 Level

BTC/USDT is at 79,184.7, up 2.47%. 24-hour high 79,324.3, low 76,391.4. Volume 6.46K BTC, turnover 503.55 million dollars.

The structure is resilient. EMA5 77,974, EMA10 78,029, EMA30 75,819. Price is holding above all averages. After a long sideways phase around 60-65k in June-July, a vertical breakout to 82,278.2 occurred in mid-August. Holding above the average cost of 78,571.5 is constructive. MFI is at 42.8, in neutral zone. 30-day return +25.48%, 90-day return +20.24%. Holding this level while equities are falling is a sign of relative strength.

Answers to the Three Questions:

Before: A 25 basis point hike is already priced in. The selling since September 8th shows that.

Decision: I expect a hawkish hike. Rates will move to the 3.75%-4.00% range and the dot plot will signal one more hike for 2026. If the word "persistent" is used at the press conference, the market will take it as hawkish.

After:
For equities, 90.95 support is critical. If it breaks, 88.00 comes into focus.
For oil, 105.10 resistance should be watched. Sustained strength above it targets the 109.54 top.
For BTC, volatility will rise short term. If 76,009 support holds, 82,278 resistance can be retested.

As a strategy, avoiding leverage before the decision and taking direction based on levels after the decision looks healthier.
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