#每周来晒

The macroeconomic stage is set for a massive week. 🥁
With the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision dropping at 02:00 Beijing time on September 17 (followed by the press conference at 02:30), all eyes are on the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, and his committee.
Following August’s CPI data showing a 3.4% YoY increase and a sticky 0.3% MoM core CPI print, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike have skyrocketed to nearly 90%.
Here is my outlook for the upcoming meeting:
1️⃣ Before the Meeting: Is it Priced In?
The 25 bps hike is almost a certainty at this point. The sticky core CPI numbers effectively forced the Fed's hand, forcing them to remain restrictive. Because expectations are hovering near 90%, the hike itself is fully priced in by the market. The real volatility won't come from the rate adjustment, but from the guidance and the tone set by the new leadership.
2️⃣ The Decision: Reading the Dot Plot & Warsh's Tone
I anticipate a mildly hawkish pause-and-assess signal. While the Fed wants to avoid crashing the economy, the underlying core inflation momentum means they cannot declare victory yet.

+ The Dot Plot: Expect it to show a split committee, leaving the door wide open for one final rate hike later this year if inflation remains stubborn.
- The Press Conference: Chair Warsh will likely emphasize data-dependence, keeping a hawkish bias to prevent premature market rallies that could loosen financial conditions.
3️⃣ After the Meeting: Market Reactions & Strategy

- BTC & ETH: Crypto thrives on liquidity. A hawkish tone might trigger a short-term liquidity squeeze, pushing BTC and ETH to retest lower support levels. However, I view any deep post-meeting correction as a prime accumulation window.
- U.S. Stocks: High-valuation tech shares could face a minor correction due to the "higher-for-longer" narrative, which often spills over into short-term crypto volatility.
- Crude Oil: Oil remains tightly bound to global demand and supply cuts, trading sideways and largely decoupled from the immediate crypto market reaction.

📊 My Asset Strategy: I am keeping my eyes off the traditional safe havens like gold this time. Instead, I am keeping a high cash position and waiting for the dust to settle. If the Fed's decision triggers a solid market correction, my playbook is simple: aggressively buy the dips and dollar-cost average (DCA) into BTC and ETH at discounted prices.
#美联储加息会议