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Why Fil5L led the gains
Three factors came together.
First, the underlying asset itself strengthened. FIL rebounded from a low of around $0.61 in mid-August, broke above a multi-month descending channel in early September, rose about 22% in a single week, and at one point tested resistance near $0.86. On September 14, the broader market fell sharply, with the Meme sector leading declines of around 3.6%; only a few sectors, such as Layer2 and DePIN, continued to rise, and FIL is the largest-weighted name in the DePIN storage sector.
Second, the narrative and catalysts were in place. Demand for AI training data storage is spilling over into decentralized storage, with Filecoin accounting for roughly 80% of DePIN storage; more importantly, the official team explicitly stated that the vesting plan will end on October 15, with total issuance expected to decrease by approximately 75%, marking the largest change in the supply structure since mainnet launch.
Third, the leveraged ETF's "positive compounding." Fivefold linear amplification corresponds to approximately 128%, while FIL5L actually rose 163%. The difference came from daily rebalancing—during a rising market, the system "adds to profitable positions," allowing leverage exposure to grow alongside net asset value. The more consistent the one-way trend, the more pronounced the compounding effect. Conversely, intraday pullbacks in the underlying asset create volatility decay; for example, SOL5L rose only 6.76%, below the fivefold linear level. This is also why the same FIL produced gains of 163% and 102% for 5L and 3L, respectively.
The next "top gainer"
Strictly speaking, it cannot be named in advance, and any claim offering a definitive answer is unfounded. What can be done is to break down the conditions for producing a "top gainer":
The underlying asset needs a one-way trend, an event or narrative catalyst, and relatively limited intraday volatility (back-and-forth fluctuations will continuously erode the ETF's net asset value). By these three criteria, events are particularly dense in mid-to-late September:
On 9/15, the CLARITY Act faces a procedural vote in the Senate; XRP is the most directly relevant asset, and XRP5L is already in the second tier. On 9/16, the Federal Reserve interest-rate decision will provide a directional variable affecting all leveraged products;
Transaction V1 has gone live on the SOL side, while the Alpenglow upgrade is slated for October. Combined with ETFs and on-chain capital, this creates a dual "technology + capital" narrative;
HYPE is the leading on-chain perpetual DEX and has a burn narrative, but it faces the event risk of approximately $800 million in unlocks in September;
The total market-wide unlock volume in September exceeds $1.53 billion, including Hyperliquid, Ethena, ZRO, and H, and the resulting supply pressure will weigh on some assets.
Overall, market discussion is currently concentrated on XRP (regulatory catalyst) and SOL (technology + capital), making these two themes more worth monitoring than "betting on the next sector." FIL has already risen more than 25% in a single day, so short-term momentum has been significantly depleted and the pullback risk of chasing further gains has clearly increased. $FIL5L