#Gate广场中秋团圆局 #布伦特和WTI站上100美元 War disrupts two major energy “chokepoints,” sending crude sharply higher before a retreat

Weekly oil price analysis
Monday: Military conflict between Iran and the United States escalated, while Saudi Aramco facilities were also attacked. Brent crude futures rose intraday to their highest level in six weeks. WTI was closed with no settlement price; Brent rose $0.72 to $97/barrel, up 0.75%.
Tuesday: Houthi forces attacked Saudi infrastructure, while fighting between Iran and the United States continued in the Strait of Hormuz. As the Middle East conflict intensified, European and U.S. crude oil futures extended their gains, with Brent crude futures approaching $100/barrel intraday. WTI rose 1.55 to $93.03/barrel, up 1.69%; Brent rose 0.92 to $97.92/barrel, up 0.95%.
Wednesday: As the conflict between the United States and Iran intensified and Houthi forces stepped up attacks on Saudi oil facilities, crude oil futures settlement prices hit their highest level since May 22. WTI rose 3.02 to $96.05/barrel, up 3.25%; Brent rose 3.29 to $101.21/barrel, up 3.36%.
Thursday: Intensifying conflict in the Persian Gulf region triggered supply concerns, while both the United States and Iran prepared for more intense confrontation. European and U.S. crude oil futures rose to their highest levels in nearly four months. WTI rose to $102.48, up $6.43, or 6.69%; Brent rose $6.42 to $107.63/barrel, up 6.34%.
Friday: Although tensions between the United States and Iran remained high over the past week, signs indicated that the parties were still attempting to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels. European and U.S. crude oil futures retreated after surging intraday. WTI fell to $100.05/barrel, down 2.37%; Brent fell to $104.61/barrel, down 2.81%. WTI’s average price last week was $97.90/barrel, an increase of $7.95/barrel and a week-on-week rise of 8.836%; Brent’s average price last week was $101.67/barrel, an increase of $7.16/barrel and a week-on-week rise of 7.576%

Factors affecting oil price movements
➤ Changes in demand expectations
Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 11th showed that the U.S. CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year in August and 0.4% month-on-month, in line with market expectations. The U.S. core consumer price index rose 2.4% year-on-year in August, above market expectations. OPEC’s latest monthly report further lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day, marking the organization’s fifth consecutive cut to its full-year demand growth forecast. OPEC still believes that global oil consumption will not be excessively affected by the current geopolitical conflict, but the direction of its forecast shows that the market is becoming more cautious about the pace of global energy demand growth.
➤ Supply factors
Transport volumes through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait plunged. Houthi forces recently attacked Saudi Arabia’s east-west crude oil pipeline and seized Mocha Port, a strategic location on the Red Sea, severely restricting Saudi crude oil shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Data from last weekend showed that the number of oil tankers transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait had fallen to around six, far below the daily capacity of 5–6 million barrels during the previous peak period.
➤ Inventory data
Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that crude oil inventories fell by 391,000 barrels in the week ended September 4. Analysts had previously expected a decline of 1.27183 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 4.450 million barrels the previous week. U.S. domestic crude oil production rose by approximately 85,000 barrels per day to 13.95 million barrels per day, setting a new record high. The previous daily production high was 13.86 million barrels in the week ended August 28.
➤ Geopolitics
The situation in the Red Sea is tightening. Houthi forces control Mocha Port and threaten Red Sea shipping, while further attacks on Saudi energy facilities have intensified market concerns that disruptions to Middle Eastern shipping and energy supplies could become prolonged.
➤ Financial attributes
According to CME FedWatch last Thursday, traders raised the probability of a rate hike this week to above 70%, a sharp increase from approximately 60% the previous day. Traders also raised the probability of another rate hike in December to nearly 60%.
➤ Fuel oil prices
The average price of MOPS 180 last week was $638.84/ton, up $42.21/ton, or 7.074% week-on-week; the average price of MOPS 380 last week was $635.96/ton, up $49.29/ton, or 8.402% week-on-week.$XBRUSD