U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has scheduled a cloture vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act for 2:15 p.m. Eastern Time on September 15. This will be the first time the full Senate votes on comprehensive crypto market structure legislation, but its nature needs to be made clear: the procedural vote will only determine whether the Senate can begin formally considering the bill, not whether the bill itself will ultimately pass.

Under Senate rules, invoking cloture requires 60 votes. Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, meaning the bill must secure the support of at least seven Democratic or independent senators; if there are defections within the Republican caucus, more Democratic votes may be needed.

Pricing in prediction markets directly reflects the twists and turns of the legislative process. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill being signed into law in 2026