#BrentWTITop$100
Brent crude is back above $100 — and this time, the move is not just about momentum.

As of September 14, Brent is trading around the $107 area, while WTI is around $103. Oil has moved sharply higher as traders price in a much bigger supply-risk premium across the Middle East. Reuters reported Brent near $107.81 and WTI near $102.94 today, while another live market feed showed Brent around $107.43.

The biggest catalyst right now is the growing threat to physical oil flows.

Saudi Arabia's East-West oil pipeline, which provides an important alternative route around the Strait of Hormuz, was hit by drone attacks. At the same time, shipping risks around the Gulf and Bab el-Mandeb are increasing, while planned talks involving Iran and Gulf countries were postponed. That combination is making traders much more nervous about how quickly crude supplies can move through the region.

This is why I’m watching the $100 level very closely.

Brent already pushed above $100 earlier this month, and the latest move toward $108 shows that buyers are still willing to chase the market when new supply disruptions appear. Reuters reported that Brent jumped more than 6% on September 10 as tanker attacks deepened fears about future supply.

But I would not blindly chase every green candle here.

Oil above $100 creates a completely different macro environment. Higher crude prices can feed directly into fuel and transportation costs, keeping inflation elevated and potentially making central banks more cautious about cutting rates. Reuters noted that the current oil shock is already complicating the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

My market view is simple: as long as geopolitical risks continue disrupting production, pipelines or shipping routes, Brent has a strong reason to remain elevated. A clean break and hold above the recent $108 area would keep the upside momentum alive.

But if diplomatic progress reduces the supply-risk premium, or disrupted flows begin returning to normal, this rally can unwind very quickly. The EIA also expects elevated prices while Middle East disruptions persist, but sees prices easing as production and exports recover.

So for me, the key story is no longer simply “Brent crossed $100.”

The real story is whether the market can stay above $100 without another major supply shock.

Right now, the fundamentals are still bullish — but volatility is extremely high, so I would rather wait for confirmation than chase the move.

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